Saturday, June 18, 2011

6/18 - 1:30am - More Storms Today in KY and IN, Some Severe

Storms are already forming very early this morning over Illinois near a stationary warm front and are forecast to move southeastward across Indiana and Kentucky later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Storms that pass through the Louisville area before lunchtime will have the potential to cause wind damage as they begin to feed off of some morning heating. This initial round of storms may stay to the west of Louisville and Lexington and instead focus more on the Evansville, IN area if the latest short-range models are correct. These precipitation outputs below are very general and rarely depict a perfectly precise forecast for where storms will set up, so take these with a big grain of salt:

NAM, RUC, and WRF precipitation forecasts for 11, 8, and 11am respectively

Computer models are also showing a blossoming of these storms in Kentucky and maybe some new ones in the afternoon as we add on more daytime heating. With wind shear coming into play (which is something that these storms today near the Ohio River didn't have to work with), we could be looking at an increased risk for severe weather both in the morning and afternoon hours. Since these storms will be linear and/or bunched together, tornadoes and severe hail should stay out of the picture for the most part. Wind will be the main threat with these storms, so you may want to secure that garbage can or any patio furniture that you may have sitting loose outside before tomorrow mid-morning if you live in Southern Indiana or Kentucky. Given the wind risk from these storms tomorrow, the Storm Prediction Center has placed most of Kentucky and Southern Indiana under a 30% Slight Risk for severe weather. Tennessee, save for extreme northeastern portions, should outside of the severe weather threat tomorrow. I'll be up bright and early tomorrow, so be sure to follow me on Twitter or Facebook for the latest updates as these storms approach the Ohio River!

A similar situation could unfold again tomorrow with severe weather (a Slight Risk has already been issued), but this time wind shear might be a bit more favorable for stronger storms that are more organized. The main risk again will be wind damage and possibly small hail from some of the stronger storms. Seems like late Spring is keeping things busy around the Lower Ohio Valley!

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