Wednesday, June 22, 2011

6/22 - 10:30am - Damaging Winds and Hail Possible Today

Storms will likely develop this afternoon ahead of a slow-moving cold front in Southwestern Indiana and Western Kentucky before moving eastward toward Louisville. With a lack of heating (we're only in the lower 70's across Kentucky and Tennessee this morning) and cloud cover present over much of the area, storms will likely take their time to form.

These factors will also limit the strength of the storms this afternoon. Some storms will be severe with damaging winds, but this won't be a knock-out drag-out derecho or giant bow echo. Instead, bowing segments with winds over severe criteria may be present in the line of storms that may form. Speaking of forming, the NAM and RUC computer models are in general agreement that storms will form after 3pm. The RUC, below, even has a linear shape to the storms much like the early morning NAM run had.

Again, this won't be a big severe weather outbreak but the potential for wind damage and possibly some hail exists in Southern Indiana and Kentucky near the Ohio River today. Further south in Tennessee the risk for wind damage won't be as great due to lesser wind shear, but scattered storms will develop with some becoming severe this afternoon. The tornado risk for all of these areas will be quite low. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Michigan to Louisiana, so storms could affect a pretty large area.

No comments: