For the first time this season, someone in my chemistry class looked out the window and shouted "Snow!!!" This caught me off guard and made my day considering how gloomy it was outside. The GFS had hinted at some renegade flurries, but I just disregarded them. Turns out it was right!
While out temperatures are cold right now, we'll be warming into the 50's and 60's by next week. All this is leading up to a possibly harsh cool down just after Thanksgiving that the GFS has been hinting at since last week. Whether or not we get frozen precip is still in question, but we'll at least get some rain.
A tornado occurred near London, KY yesterday... Click here for more.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
11/13 - 5pm - Yucky Looking Day
What a nasty looking day outside. It feels like I'm living in England with this light drizzle and 60 degree weather!
Another issue of note is our Thanksgiving forecast, which looks cold right now. I can't make a decision about whether or not we'll see any form of precipitation because the models are simply going nuts right now. That whole weekend after Thanksgiving looks very active for much of the country, but its hard to pinpoint where exactly it will be active. More on this later...
Another issue of note is our Thanksgiving forecast, which looks cold right now. I can't make a decision about whether or not we'll see any form of precipitation because the models are simply going nuts right now. That whole weekend after Thanksgiving looks very active for much of the country, but its hard to pinpoint where exactly it will be active. More on this later...
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
11/7 - 7pm - Backing off of the Flurries...
I'm now convinced that we're going to be much warmer than 40's for mid next week. The GFS has finally stabilized a little and I think the freezing temperatures and the snow flurries will stay well north of here. I don't think we'll go much below 50 if any next week.
Otherwise we'll be recovering from our cold snap and rise to 70 by week's end with some rain on Monday and Tuesday.
Otherwise we'll be recovering from our cold snap and rise to 70 by week's end with some rain on Monday and Tuesday.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
11/6 - 2:40pm - New Forecast Video
Here's a special Tuesday forecast video, since one wasn't made on Saturday...
Monday, November 5, 2007
11/5 - 7pm - Craziness in the Weather World!
Sorry about the long pause in blog/web action there, just too many things to do.
For about the last four days the GFS has shown a good bit of snow over us around the 13-14th of November. It was fairly consistent with the fact that we would see some sort of snow and freezing cold air, but now its wavering a little. As we get closer to the actual proposed storm day I think the model will become confused at times. This is because we're in a period of HUGE swings right now, which can make forecasting a bear. Might I also mention that we could see 70 degrees by early next week?
Here's the deal, I've been tracking this 13-14th thing in the midst of my busyness and you simply can't discount a long stretch of loose consistency on any long range model. Many forecasts have even gone with the recent two or three runs of the GFS and are now saying 50 degrees for those days.
I say NO. I will say lower 40's and no more! The GFS is so confused right now that I think it is contradicting itself. There have been three RADICALLY different proposed solutions in the past 24 hours for this system. The past few days have seen a general consistency with an anomaly here or there. I'm going to vie for consistency here. Yes, I know we're still talking long term here, but I think that when a model is sticking to its guns and then goes nuts, you need to stay with your forecast until another (or the same) general consistency is back.
This absolutely does not mean I'm calling for any snowstorm event here; I'm just saying that, according to previous GFS runs, that freezing temperatures and the possibility of light to moderate snow is possible on the 13th-14th. I'll stay with this until I see the GFS get its story straight. It seems that the 18z run came back to its senses a bit, but its still not back to where it was before. If the 0z is even closer to the previous consistent solutions, I'll feel much better.
I might do a forecast video tomorrow since I'm off. It would be up just before the late afternoon hours.
For about the last four days the GFS has shown a good bit of snow over us around the 13-14th of November. It was fairly consistent with the fact that we would see some sort of snow and freezing cold air, but now its wavering a little. As we get closer to the actual proposed storm day I think the model will become confused at times. This is because we're in a period of HUGE swings right now, which can make forecasting a bear. Might I also mention that we could see 70 degrees by early next week?
Here's the deal, I've been tracking this 13-14th thing in the midst of my busyness and you simply can't discount a long stretch of loose consistency on any long range model. Many forecasts have even gone with the recent two or three runs of the GFS and are now saying 50 degrees for those days.
I say NO. I will say lower 40's and no more! The GFS is so confused right now that I think it is contradicting itself. There have been three RADICALLY different proposed solutions in the past 24 hours for this system. The past few days have seen a general consistency with an anomaly here or there. I'm going to vie for consistency here. Yes, I know we're still talking long term here, but I think that when a model is sticking to its guns and then goes nuts, you need to stay with your forecast until another (or the same) general consistency is back.
This absolutely does not mean I'm calling for any snowstorm event here; I'm just saying that, according to previous GFS runs, that freezing temperatures and the possibility of light to moderate snow is possible on the 13th-14th. I'll stay with this until I see the GFS get its story straight. It seems that the 18z run came back to its senses a bit, but its still not back to where it was before. If the 0z is even closer to the previous consistent solutions, I'll feel much better.
I might do a forecast video tomorrow since I'm off. It would be up just before the late afternoon hours.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
11/1 - 9pm - That's What I Thought!
I hope that everyone had an enjoyable Halloween! The weather was nice and there was indeed a great amount of trick-or-treaters this year.
Now on to more serious matters, like a HUGE cool down that I've been yelling about for the last few days. It seems that the GFS is keeping its promise of this event, with each consecutive run producing the same general cool down around the 13th of November (which is consequently just after my birthday on the 11th!). I've been saying that there would be some type of frozen precipitation around that time and we're still on track for at least some flurries.
Finally, there won't be a video forecast on Saturday due to some scheduled things I have to do.
Now on to more serious matters, like a HUGE cool down that I've been yelling about for the last few days. It seems that the GFS is keeping its promise of this event, with each consecutive run producing the same general cool down around the 13th of November (which is consequently just after my birthday on the 11th!). I've been saying that there would be some type of frozen precipitation around that time and we're still on track for at least some flurries.
Finally, there won't be a video forecast on Saturday due to some scheduled things I have to do.
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