Wow, I must say that the weather has been tranquil today. 65 degrees and a few scattered clouds really gets the senses going.
This pattern of calm weather, with some pretty intense warming, should stick around until mid next week. By then we are just adding in some daily storm chances that are normal for this time of year.
Nationally, nothing severe is on the map for a few days. I am looking at the SPC 4-8 day outlook which has some areas in the plains outlined for some severe weather, but as of now it looks okay for us. It seems as though the storms on that front will collapse before they get here.
The only real moisture I'm seeing right now could be next weekend. The GFS has a low slamming into us with some pretty intense precipitation. Of course I am very skeptical of this after some of the "imaginary storms" that surface on the GFS and then disappear. I think we'll know if next weekend is a washout by the end of the current weekend.
Friday, May 18, 2007
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
5/16 - 6:45pm - Cool for Now, Hot for Later
It was noticeably colder today than in the previous two weeks. This cold front that went through did not come quietly or warmly. Luckily, after tomorrow we will warm through the 70's and be back in the mid 80's by mid next week.
There were many reports of wind damage outside of Jefferson County last night, but luckily Louisville was spared from such weather...
There were many reports of wind damage outside of Jefferson County last night, but luckily Louisville was spared from such weather...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
5/15 - 9:50pm - ...then the lights flickered...
I expected the storms to roll through sometime near midnight. Then our power flickered at 9:45pm! Apparently a fast line of windy showers and thunderstorms formed ahead of the main cold front that I didn't expect. This line has some severe weather associated with it just north of Louisville. I don't expect any severe weather in Louisville, but keep your eyes peeled just in case anything flares up in the next half hour.
Just think, after this we will have some quiet weather to enjoy. Although the upper 60's for highs isn't my favorite temperature range...
Just think, after this we will have some quiet weather to enjoy. Although the upper 60's for highs isn't my favorite temperature range...
5/15 - 4pm - Not much to worry about...
Based on the SPC's current outlook and the NAM, I think we will steer clear of any severe weather. Having said that, we will have strong storms tonight with some gusty winds. The timing issue that I mentioned yesterday has been hammered out and we should see these storms arrive just after midnight.
After this front goes through, we should see some cooler weather. It will take a few days to gradually build our heat back up and recover from this system...
After this front goes through, we should see some cooler weather. It will take a few days to gradually build our heat back up and recover from this system...
Monday, May 14, 2007
5/14 - 6:30pm - Strong (Severe?) Storms for Tomorrow
I said in my forecast video on Sunday that there would be the potential for some storms on Tuesday. What I didn't have yet was an answer to the question: Will they be severe? Well the answer lies with timing and instability.
Let's look at issue one, which is timing. The NAM model sides with a forecast of these storms blasting through here just after midnight:
I won't even mention the GFS because I don't like the precipitation values that are being presented on it. Do I agree with this NAM model run? Yes and no. Yes, I think the issue of strength of these storms is accurately presented in the NAM. No, because the timing on the NAM has been jumpy with other systems and I think we can only get a better time on these storms by waiting for at least another model run. Remember: The earlier in the afternoon the storm occurs here, the greater chance we will see severe weather.
On to issue two, instability:
The Cape model is lit up like a Christmas tree, so no problem on getting instability in here for these storms. We just have to have the cold front come in just as we get into the peak of the heating in the afternoon. As the NAM has it, that won't happen.
So, my final prediction here is that we will see some late night storms tomorrow night with only a limited amount of severe weather present. I think wind will be the only thing we need to worry about. I think it was wise for the SPC to place us under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather until the timing issue can be hammered out.
If storms do reach severe limits in Louisville before 10pm tomorrow night, I will be on my live severe weather coverage box just to the right of the blog. I don't think I'll need to do any severe weather video tomorrow because this is a very small chance for severe weather, but check back tomorrow afternoon and I will update you on the status of these storms on my blog.
Let's look at issue one, which is timing. The NAM model sides with a forecast of these storms blasting through here just after midnight:
I won't even mention the GFS because I don't like the precipitation values that are being presented on it. Do I agree with this NAM model run? Yes and no. Yes, I think the issue of strength of these storms is accurately presented in the NAM. No, because the timing on the NAM has been jumpy with other systems and I think we can only get a better time on these storms by waiting for at least another model run. Remember: The earlier in the afternoon the storm occurs here, the greater chance we will see severe weather.
On to issue two, instability:
The Cape model is lit up like a Christmas tree, so no problem on getting instability in here for these storms. We just have to have the cold front come in just as we get into the peak of the heating in the afternoon. As the NAM has it, that won't happen.
So, my final prediction here is that we will see some late night storms tomorrow night with only a limited amount of severe weather present. I think wind will be the only thing we need to worry about. I think it was wise for the SPC to place us under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather until the timing issue can be hammered out.
If storms do reach severe limits in Louisville before 10pm tomorrow night, I will be on my live severe weather coverage box just to the right of the blog. I don't think I'll need to do any severe weather video tomorrow because this is a very small chance for severe weather, but check back tomorrow afternoon and I will update you on the status of these storms on my blog.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Monday, May 7, 2007
5/7 - 8:15pm - Not much 'round here lately...
Looks like some 70's and 80's, but not much moisture in the forecast.
Now, the Live Severe Weather Video Coverage feature (found on the right side of this blog in the "Ustream" box) is ready for action when we get severe weather. I should be in town for at least the start and middle of our tornado season. I will miss some of the end of it due to travel, but I'll try to get as much coverage in as possible. I think I may start an e-mail list to send out alert e-mails when I start broadcasting during a severe weather event. That's still in the works though.
I will only broadcast during severe weather (when there's a line of thunderstorms with either hail or tornadoes coming towards Louisville). But since I can see how many viewers I have at a particular time, I will only start broadcasting when I get a viewer or two. Until I get at least one viewer, I'll just stick a live radar image and some scrolling warning information.
Tell your friends about this service, let's make this the biggest deal we can! The more viewers I can get, the more coverage and more features I can put into this. Just remember that this is still just a large experiment and only your local news/NOAA weather radio can provide you with the best information. Remember, they have way better tools than I do and that factor can potentially save a life. I'll try to keep up with the local media and watch them while I'm broadcasting to fill in any holes I miss.
The service I use to get this video broadcast is called Ustream, and is available for free to anyone by logging onto http://Ustream.tv. There is a new version of this service coming out soon so you should see a better quality image and better audio video sync hopefully.
Now, the Live Severe Weather Video Coverage feature (found on the right side of this blog in the "Ustream" box) is ready for action when we get severe weather. I should be in town for at least the start and middle of our tornado season. I will miss some of the end of it due to travel, but I'll try to get as much coverage in as possible. I think I may start an e-mail list to send out alert e-mails when I start broadcasting during a severe weather event. That's still in the works though.
I will only broadcast during severe weather (when there's a line of thunderstorms with either hail or tornadoes coming towards Louisville). But since I can see how many viewers I have at a particular time, I will only start broadcasting when I get a viewer or two. Until I get at least one viewer, I'll just stick a live radar image and some scrolling warning information.
Tell your friends about this service, let's make this the biggest deal we can! The more viewers I can get, the more coverage and more features I can put into this. Just remember that this is still just a large experiment and only your local news/NOAA weather radio can provide you with the best information. Remember, they have way better tools than I do and that factor can potentially save a life. I'll try to keep up with the local media and watch them while I'm broadcasting to fill in any holes I miss.
The service I use to get this video broadcast is called Ustream, and is available for free to anyone by logging onto http://Ustream.tv. There is a new version of this service coming out soon so you should see a better quality image and better audio video sync hopefully.
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