Not Much Snow...

Most people I've talked to today think the snow season is over. I feel your pain. This is simply not the case.

The temperature will be warmer this week, but not by much. We'll hover just a couple degrees above freezing, still in the snow zone. There are more chances for snow en route. One is interesting.

There is a "short wave" coming to the area on Monday night/Tuesday A.M.. This will harbor some good moisture with it. Here is my problem: temperature.

The temperature has been dancing around on the models for this time. Some say right at or below freezing, others are near the 40's. The general consensus at this time is at or below though (keep fingers crossed). I'll stop there.

Not Again!!!

The storms go either north or south of us, always. We were nearly sure yesterday of 2-4". All we got was about an inch. Oh well, hopefully there will be more snow to come later.

This could be either nice or REALLY NICE!!!

Well, this little clipper thing has turned into a BIG clipper thing almost overnight. This morning, the NAM and GFS dropped it south, just as I thought it could. Folks, I won't kid you. We could see a potential 5-6" inches out of this IF it shifts a mere 25-50 miles south. I am estimating 2-4" inches though, out of a little skepticism and reality. This will occur at 2pm tomorrow and end at 8pm, prime for an early school cancellation. There are some models putting this thing through Louisville, including the famed GFS. I'll stick with the NAM though.

I want to urge you now (I hope I don't look like a doophus if this thing falls through), get needed supplies NOW. These systems are unpredictable on strength sometimes and like to pop out a really big storm. IF we end up with 5-6 inches of snow, this will certainly close school for a day or more and basically shut down the city for a couple days. This event won't be as bad as the Dec 2004 storm (10"), but nevertheless any snow in Louisville is a big deal.

I heard a report on WHAS 11 that JCPS people are working with meteorologists to determine an early dismissal tomorrow, which looks ominous at this time due to the 2pm beginning of the storm.

I will post later tonight and after school tomorrow as this develops. Hold in there, this could be big if things come together just right. I do want to urge that it won't be a record breaker, but it will surely be the biggest storm so far this season.

By the way, did you know that today is Weatherperson's day? I didn't know either until this morning...

Mobile update... There have been some changes to our Tues. clipper system, which are beneficial for snow here. More details in a couple hours...

My Clipper Senses are Tingling...

The GFS has a nice clipper in here for Tuesday. The NAM has it going south of us. This has me concerned for 2 reasons...

1. Clippers are some of the worst weather events to forecast in the world. They change course quickly and intensify with even the slightest bit of moisture flow interception. If there's a model putting this thing north of us when we've been seeing actual storm tracks south of the model estimates, we may indeed get this one.
2. The temperature is going to be VERY cold Tuesday night, I'm talking single digits. You know that I've said that the colder it is the fluffier and bigger the snow flakes get. Even though the most this clipper can dump out is .2 inches of liquid precipitation, the snow conversion amounts will be way higher than 10:1 (25:1 maybe?).

You know the drill, I can't estimate accumulations until the GFS and NAM stop their domestic dispute. Once that occurs I can really hit the accumulations head on. I've heard estimates as to how much snow this thing can potentially produce, but no placement on that yet. At the moment, the GFS says it will be here. The NAM says it will go north to Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Columbus. Who shall we believe? I don't know yet, the NAM messed up our first snow storm and the GFS beefed it on the Thursday storm at this far out in the forecast. This is a very risky system; a good forecaster would leave the snow chance in his prediction and wait for a sure consensus on the models before saying, "Milk and Bread!!!!!" (Which could be possible if we play our cards right on Tuesday...).

I will laugh if our biggest storm of the year comes from a clipper system (not saying it will).

Forecast Video 2-3-07

Here's an updated forecast video...

Well, that was round one...

Last night's disappointing bout of snow was round one. Round two is tonight, with about the same effect as last, a half an inch. I was surprised that JCPS and others were running on a 2-hour delay. There wasn't that much snow. It would've been nice to close, but at least we got a 2-hour extension of sleep!