2/27 - 4:15pm - Two Shots of Severe Weather This Week

This will certainly be an active week across the Southeast as two storm systems cause trouble for many. The first of these severe weather events will affect West Tennessee and North Mississippi on Wednesday and the second should move through on Friday.

Wednesday

At this point it looks like we'll be tracking storms moving out of Arkansas into West Tennessee and North Mississippi on late Tuesday night after a few showers and possibly a storm pass through during the day on Tuesday. While these storms could have some potency over Central Arkansas, the thinking at this point is that they will weaken overnight as they lose the heating of the day. The best wind shear for these storms will be in the Jackson, TN area as they move through on Wednesday morning into the early afternoon ahead of a cold front, but without much of the needed instability that daytime heating helps to generate the storms shouldn't be too intense. They may very well reach severe limits with some wind and hail, but I think the worst of the storms will be more in Middle Tennessee where they'll have time to re-fire during the heating of the day. The Storm Prediction Center has 30% Slight severe weather risks over Arkansas into extreme West Tennessee on Tuesday and then has the same risk area in Middle Tennessee/extreme Northeast Mississippi on Wednesday. The worst severe weather will effectively leapfrog most of West Tennessee according to these two outlooks, and that looks like a fair forecast right now given the timing of the storms over the region.

Further south in North Mississippi the situation should be about the same, but with a little less wind shear support for severe storms and a later timing for them to move through (later Wednesday afternoon) since the cold front will stall near the MS/TN border for a while during the day (see left image from the 12 NAM). The NAM and GFS models agree that North Mississippi will have higher dew points (more moisture) than West Tennessee, but without great wind support this shouldn't lead to a noticeable increase in storm severity. I should point out that both locations could see a possible isolated tornado or two, but this should be a very low chance given the lack of good low-level wind shear.

Friday

Friday's severe weather event is not a clean-cut as Wednesday's is at this point, but it's looking more and more like this one will feature more intense storms. Another cold front passing through on Friday night will provide a focus for what could be a couple lines or clusters of storms. Right now the GFS and European computer models agree that this will likely not be a tornado outbreak because of the lack of low-level shear much like Wednesday's event, but the two models can't agree on how much moisture makes it northward from the Gulf. The GFS has 65 degree + dew points making it all the way into West Tennessee on Friday whereas the European is not as optimistic. This also plays into who sees the best instability too, so it's not clear right now as to who will see the most severe storms on Friday. It is safe to say that West Tennessee and North Mississippi may have to deal with high winds and maybe even some hail on Friday, and it will likely be more intense than Wednesday based on current data.

Southeast Severe Storms Symposium

To those who are attending the 10th Annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University on Friday and Saturday, we will go on as planned even if there is severe weather in the region. While many meteorologists who will be presenting may not be able to attend because of the risk for severe weather in their respective coverage areas, we should be able to have most of them present their sessions to the symposium via Skype. I'm leading a group of meteorology students who will be live tweeting the symposium on the official Southeast Severe Storms Symposium Twitter account @SESSS12. Be sure to follow us!

9/17 - 8pm - Super Weather Weekend!

Today was certainly fun and informative as I attended the broadcast workshop portion of the Southeast Severe Storms Symposium here at MSU. TV meteorologists James Spann (ABC 33/40 - Birmingham, AL), Mary Wasson (WTVQ - Lexington, KY), and others spoke about a range of issues pertaining to broadcast meteorology and television news. They all had great advice for the up and coming meteorology students in the audience, including yours truly. Tomorrow is the operational workshop of the symposium, which will include presentations on various weather phenomena from National Weather Service meteorologists and professors from MSU. I'll be chairing (emceeing) the symposium for a couple hours tomorrow, so it should be a lot of fun!

As if that weren't enough for tomorrow... Right after I finish chairing the symposium tomorrow afternoon, I get to jump in my car and head to Jackson, TN to begin my broadcast meteorology career at WBBJ ABC 7. My very first show will air tomorrow at 10pm CDT and I'm very, very excited to say the least. I understand that most of my blog viewers do not live close enough to Jackson to see that station, so I hope to have some video from that newscast posted here late tomorrow night or early Sunday morning. I'll also be doing the 5:30pm Sunday newscast, so I'll have a second attempt at getting some video if it doesn't work tomorrow. I do want to mention that WBBJ is available on cable from Murray, KY to Corinth, MS, so if you live within a stone's throw of West Tennessee, you may want to check your channel listings. This is not the start of my normal shift, which will start on October 2nd at 6am. I'm filling in for the weekends leading up to the premiere of the new Saturday morning show on WBBJ to get acquainted with my new position and to get introduced to the viewers. This is going to be a great experience and I know that my years of practice and preparation will pay off tomorrow.

Now that we've addressed this weekend's activities, let's talk weather! Hurricane Igor is on track towards Bermuda and is currently a Category 2 storm with winds of 105mph. Hurricane Julia is positioned to the east of Igor and is barely maintaining hurricane status at the moment. Both storms are not expected to hit the US, but Bermuda is likely to see some problems from Igor. Back closer to home, things are pretty quiet weather-wise. A cold front passed through Mississippi early this morning and brought northerly winds to the area, meaning we'll see humidity levels drop over the next couple days as that drier air filters into the region. It will likely get hot and steamy again by the end of the weekend in North Mississippi as southerly winds return. Aside from that, the rest of the week looks dry and hot as high pressure remains in control. I wouldn't expect any rain until at least next weekend, and even then it doesn't look terribly promising.

9/17 - 10:30am - Severe Storms Symposium

The 8th annual Southeast Severe Storms Symposium starts today on the MSU campus. This event, sponsored by the East Mississippi Chapter of the NWA and AMS, will feature broadcast and operational meteorology speakers from around the country. Today is the broadcaster's workshop and will include presentations from Dave Freeman of KSN in Wichita, Kansas and Reynolds Wolf of CNN in Atlanta. Tomorrow's speakers include meteorologists from National Weather Service offices in Jackson, Memphis, Morristown, Birmingham, and Huntsville who will speak on a wide range of historical severe weather events, technology, and phenomena. I'll be there for a few presentations today and for a good portion of tomorrow's. To see the complete agenda, click here.

Severe weather (ironically) canceled the symposium in March of this year, but it doesn't look like that will happen again. A few storms will be around the Starkville area this afternoon, and daily storm chances will continue through the weekend.