8/5 - 8:15pm - Oh I Hope I'm Wrong About This

I'm having flashbacks to last night when a dangerous derecho complex of storms went through Chicago, causing evacuations at O'Hare Airport and Wrigley Field. There's a line of storms in Illinois that's starting to develop and look like the ones that came through Chicago last night. This time we're in the crosshairs.

It's still very early to tell on this, but all other cells in our neck of the woods have dissipated to make way for this line of storms. It's not bowing out yet, but there is a tornado warning out for counties near the center of the line. My radar display here was showing a few rotation signatures, but most of those were probably due to outflow confusing the radar system. If these storms make it this far, they will most likely arrive around midnight. There's a possibility that this line could make a quick dive south once the bowing starts and miss us completely, but I have a suspicion that they won't. Here's what it looks like now:



Since the storms will be coming through after the Severe Thunderstorm Watch expiration, I think that will be extended for us. The SPC made note of that in their mesoscale discussion for the area. Stay tuned...

8/5 - 10am - Edouard Lanfall, Rough Night in Chicago

TS Edouard is making landfall this morning, just north of Houston. This is a northward shift from where it was originally plotted to reach land.



This was very close to becoming a weak hurricane, with winds now at 65mph. The lower limit for a hurricane is 73mph. This storm did close some oil platforms, but oil prices have actually dropped over the last day. Looks like supply and demand can overrule a tropical storm.

Last night, a very large and damaging derecho complex of storms hit Chicago and its Northern Indiana suburbs head-0n. Winds were clocked at 70mph in the city. More than 200,000 homes are without power in the area at the moment. It also caused evacuations at O'Hare airport and Wrigley Field. Here's a radar image I snagged last night:



Around here, we're under a SLIGHT risk for severe storms from the SPC both today and tomorrow. Instability for today and tomorrow is higher than previously thought on the SREF model, so we might get a little more than we bargained for. A line of storms is getting ready to come through the metro around an hour from now. This line has no warnings or watches associated with it, and it looks pretty benign on radar. Since these area coming through this morning, one would think that our storm threat for later today would be quashed. True, it will weaken the potential a bit this afternoon, but there's still a pretty good chance we'll see some severe weather later. If we can clear out the clouds later this morning and into the afternoon, you can bet on it.

Tomorrow's threat looks about the same in terms of severity, but I think those storms will be more isolated due to a passing cold front.

These storms this morning will limit our temperatures today, with highs in the lower 90's instead of upper 90's. Humidity will still be an issue, with heat index values in the lower 100's today. Make sure you wear light clothing and drink lots of water! Tomorrow will see a decrease in temperatures, with a high somewhere in the uppper 80's.

7/21 - 10pm - Missed the Storms Today, More Tonight!!!

I missed today's severe storms, which were well forecast by the SPC, because I was spending my day at King's Island in Cincinnati. It was hotter than blazes, the sun was out, and the air was chuck full of moisture, yet no storms materialized for the Cincinnati area. Louisville seems to be a storm magnet lately!

I heard about the Severe Thunderstorm Warning that was issued and came home to see nearly a quarter of an inch of rain recorded on our digital rain gauge. That must have been quite a downpour!

We're not out of the woods yet it looks like for tonight. An impressive looking line of storms (MCS) is taking shape north of St. Louis... possibly becoming a derecho later tonight if it isn't already. A derecho is a large, bowing line of storms with sustained winds of near 60 mph or higher. The SPC did a good job today by issuing a MODERATE risk just to our north and west. We'll see if that area needs extentions though. Our local NWS office is estimating a 2am arrival time for this in Louisville, and I'm in agreement with this.

Derechos are nasty, folks. We had one in 2004 that knocked out power to nearly 200,000 LG&E customers in the metro. We didn't get power back at my house for nearly 5 days. Granted, this storm had sustained winds of over 75 mph, but the point of the story is that large scale bowing events like this cause major problems. I don't really think we'll see real widespread severe weather tonight due to the deterioration of these storms during the night, but nevertheless there is a good chance we could have some problems. We'll see if this thing is going to live long enough to pack a punch down here. Our NWS office is putting out the call to turn on your weather alert radios tonight, so I think I know their what their feeling is about this thing. I'd heed that call if I were you.

This could be a rough night if this storm structure stays intact.