7/14 - 12:20pm - New Video Forecast

Here's a new video forecast...

7/12 - 9:30am - Lower 80's? In July?

That's right! Tomorrow's high will be 83 degrees. What a relief from all of those 90 degree temperatures we've been hammered with...

Unfortunately we will be dry also, as the parcel of air over us is dry as a bone. With these low temperatures the next couple of days is a price to pay. This bill comes due early next week when we reach 90 and above again. Until then, enjoy the cool weather!

7/9 - 9:30pm - Cooling Off...

This heat has made me sweat today. That combined with the humidity makes even a four mile bike trip seem intolerable. I think we are in need of a break.

We are indeed getting a break, and its starts now! Tomorrow and Wednesday will have great chances for needed rain and temperatures settling down into the mid and lower 80's. That sure sounds a lot better than mid to lower 90's!

Now, about this rain business. Tomorrow should be a light rain, maybe a third of an inch. In contrast Wednesday looks to be a soaker, with over an inch of rain possible. The HPC's precip outlook has been a little squirrelly on this system, but I think we're close enough to make a good assumption. Meanwhile, the NAM continues to agree loosely with HPC's current outlook. Don't you just love it when weather models agree with each other?

After that, we'll have another DRY and HOT week. I think temperatures may reach near the mid or (possibly) even upper 90's then.

7/7 - 11:30am - New Video Forecast

Here comes the heat!

7/5 - 2:25pm - Lightning Show!

At around midnight last night, we had quite a lightning show in the area. Thankfully, most were able to shoot off their own fireworks before the real ones came. I know that I counted at least one strike every minute or so last night, which was quite impressive for a small line of storms like that.

We are still under a SLIGHT risk of severe storms for today, pending that we can scoot the clouds out for some convection. I just took a quick look at the radar and it was showing some small cell development just south of Indianapolis. It looks like the development is on the increase too. Keep in mind that this was the area that was hit by some decent severe weather yesterday. Since the front has moved south, so has the risk area. So that means we might get at least a taste of what the area south of Indy got yesterday, although the SPC favors the Cincinnati area...

7/3 - 7pm - SLIGHT Risk on Thursday

The SPC is now calling for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms on Thursday. I see a pretty good chunk of moisture on the GFS still, about the same as Sunday's model run that I discussed. The CAPE model shows adequate instability for a small severe event, so I think the SPC made a good call with the SLIGHT risk issuing.

7/1 - 9:15pm - Rain Coming, Hold On!

Some areas of Louisville have been left out by our recent scattered rain systems. At my house, we got nearly an inch of rain. We were lucky though, some didn't get nearly that much.

I said in my video forecast that I was slapping a 30% chance of rain on Thursday. This was done because I thought the GFS was being delusional about the amount of rain it was showing. Well, I'm now ready to side with it.

Yesterday, as I looked at the NWS and other agencies' forecasts and then looked at the GFS, things weren't adding up. It seemed like the GFS was really driving in the rain, while human forecasters were backing away from it. But again, the same amount of rain showed up on the model today. When I see good consistency in a model like that, alarm bells go off in my head. So now I'm thinking that we'll have a pretty good chance for rain on Thursday. It seems like others are catching onto this idea too, as their forecasts are showing a greater (40-50%) chance for rain...