The track has moved eastward toward New Orleans and away from Central Louisiana like the outlook this afternoon. The spaghetti chart confirms the shift pretty well:
(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)
This is bad, bad news folks. Now that the storm has cleared Cuba for the most part, it has an open road straight to the Gulf Coast. Winds calmed to 140mph while crossing Cuba, but they're expected to pick up again as the storm goes into some wickedly warm water. The eye has lost its definition as well, but it is already showing signs of coming back on the satellite loops.
New Orleans is in great danger from this Categroy 4 storm as of this moment. This eastward shift in the models has made it pretty clear that Gustav has the potential to wreak havoc on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with New Orleans potentially in that dreadful right sector of the storm where the winds are highest. It's good that evacuations are well underway right now, but they need to move as fast as possible. If the track even shifts the tiniest bit east again, then New Orleans gets the full force of the storm. As of now, they are just slightly out of the full potential, but still within great danger. All it will take is a powerful storm surge that penetrates the levees to repeat 2005 all over again. I really do hope that this track shifts west and that the levees hold.
I'll talk about Tropical Storm Hanna more in depth after Gustav's landfall on Monday. As of now, Hanna looks like it will head up near the Carolinas or over the Florida Peninsula, but the models are all over the place with it. This week could be one of the most disastrous weather weeks in US history with the combination of these two storms.
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