8/15 - 7:15pm - Rain Chances Gone, TS Fay

Our rain chances for next week were already small to begin with, but now the GFS has changed its mind and decided that high pressure will suppress any low pressure that tries to come north from Texas. What does that mean for us? It means another spectacular dry week ahead, but this time we'll throw in a few days in the low 90's. Considering how lucky we've been, a few days in the low 90's is a minuscule price to pay for all this wonderful weather.

Tropical Storm Fay is getting revved up near Hispaniola. Here's the latest NHC advisory graphic:



You may be thinking, "Oh, this will stay a tropical storm, so there's nothing to worry about." Wrong! The forecast path has already changed from east of Florida to almost west of Florida just today alone. I personally think this might get into the Gulf, which is not a good thing at all. More and more lines on the spaghetti chart (each line is a projected forecast path) are drifting west, which is dangerous for the Gulf coast:



The thick pink line is the "line of best fit," which is what the NHC is going off of right now. This morning these lines were, for the most part, to the east of Florida. The GFS is taking Fay through the middle of Florida and the NAM is taking it up the Atlantic Coast right now. There's no telling which of these three posible paths the storm will take, but I think we'll know fairly soon. As for now, I'm going to stick with my slightly west of Florida forecast track. Stay tuned.