9/2 - 5:15pm - Hot and Dry!

(NOTE: I really do appreciate everyone's comments to the blog posts, but keep them respectful and professional please.)

It's 93 degrees at the airport with a dewpoint at 65. While the humidity isn't all that impressive, it's just enough to make it feel pretty sticky out there. With the little amount of rain we've had for nearly the last month, the heat will only feed off of the dry ground. Hopefully we can curtail the temperature this weekend by adding in a small chance of rain on Friday. That's about all we can hope for right now!

Clearing out some unfinished business from Gustav... It was pretty evident that Gustav would not come ashore as no more than a Category 2 or 3 the night before, but a few media outlets seemed to keep the Cat 4 or 5 possibility in the limelight. The storm was simply too close to land and cooler water for any further development by about 4pm the day before. As always, I recommend going straight to the source, the National Hurricane Center. While they're not always 100% correct, I can assure you that they are more unbiased and less sensationalist than other sources. John Belski seemed to pick up on this as well... click here.

As for Hanna and Ike, here's their projected paths:





Tropical Storm Josephine has formed as well, but it's too far off to really tell where it will go. I'll post maps on that one at a later point in time.

9/1 - 4pm - Gustav Weakens, Levees Hold, More Storms to Come

Gustav has weakened to a Category 1 with winds pushing up to 90mph right now. There are mass power outages in the Louisiana/Mississippi area, including New Orleans. That's to be expected with the winds that came through. Here's some great news: the levees are holding in New Orleans. Even though they are being over topped by the storm surge, they are at least not failing and holding most of the water back. There has been some flooding in the Industrial Canal area of New Orleans, but that seems to be an isolated case at this point. The levees are holding in that area, but they're unfinished and water is sloshing over them. Let's hope that the levees hold for the remainder of this storm, especially with the Mississippi River now being affected.

The track from the NHC brings the remains of Gustav into Oklahoma now instead of parking it in Texas. This raises the possibility for some drenching rains here, especially if this meets up with a cold front expected to stall out over us early this weekend.

Now, here's some bad news. We're going to add two names to the family of storms in the Gulf and Atlantic. Hurricane Hanna was upgraded from a tropical storm this morning and Tropical Depression 9, soon to be Tropical Storm Ike, is on it's way. Hanna is going to impact North or South Carolina this weekend and Ike is going to try to aim for the Bahamas as a hurricane by this weekend as well. I'll get maps and models up on those tomorrow after Gustav stops causing such a stir.

9/1 - 10:30am - Gustav Now Category 2

The only kicker to my title is that the storm only dropped 5mph to reach a Category 2, which puts winds still around 110mph. But, any weakening is good in this situation.

Here's the track from the NHC... landfall by this afternoon:



New Orleans will most likely see Category 1 hurricane force winds with no word on exactly what is going to happen with the storm surge. I've heard estimates from 8 feet all the way to 15 feet, so we'll have to wait and see. Obviously the towns around the area of landfall like Houma, LA and Morgan City, LA are going to see the full force of this storm.

There have been a great deal of tornado warnings posted both overnight and this morning in the Gulf Coast due to some potential rotation within some of these rain bands, but only one tornado has been reported from western Mississippi to the SPC.

As for us, we're going to stay hot and dry until this weekend. Highs will top out at around 93-94 in the suburbs and maybe up to 95 degrees in the city.

8/31 - 8pm - Maybe Gustav Won't Reach a Category 4?

It's good that Gustav has been relatively weak today, with winds at around 115mph. It looks like now that the storm won't go any higher than a Category 3 before landfall because it's simply getting too close to land to get any stronger. The strengthening that most, including myself, thought would happen over the warm Gulf waters never materialized. This is very good news, but this is still a force to be reckoned with.

The projected area for landfall is still the same as when I posted at 3pm, so New Orleans will see some wind, rain, and storm surge out of this. Since this will steer just west of the city, I think the risk of heavy damage has decreased a bit. Tropical storm force winds are expected at landfall, with hurricane force not out of the question. The levees are a different story though, as the storm surge might or might not be enough to run over them. Let's hope they hold.

Hopefully there will be more good news to come, although it can only get so good. We're still talking about a hurricane impacting the Central Louisiana coast, folks. Remember that landfall is slated to occur tomorrow before noon.

8/31 - 3pm - Get Out of New Orleans. Now.

If you're reading this from the city of New Orleans, you'd better be there with a media outlet or emergency management. Nobody except these people need to be in the city right now. Hurricane Gustav has not changed its path since last night, and there's still room for the trend to go dangerously east. There is also the possibility that it could go west as well, but that is looking less and less likely as the storm reaches the coast. This will hit land as at least a Category 3, even though it has calmed a bit today. Things should pick up as we head into the evening hours in terms of winds.

Here's the latest from the NHC and the Colorado State spaghetti chart:





(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

Notice that the eastward shift is still on there, but the couple models from last night putting it over the city of New Orleans have gotten back to their senses. Still the same situation as last night in terms of landfall and projected intensity. This storm is bad news for New Orleans, especially since they could get the northeast corner of the storm that is strongest.

8/30 - 11:20pm - The Dreaded Eastward Shift... Look Out New Orleans

I shuddered when I saw the 11pm update from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Gustav:



The track has moved eastward toward New Orleans and away from Central Louisiana like the outlook this afternoon. The spaghetti chart confirms the shift pretty well:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

This is bad, bad news folks. Now that the storm has cleared Cuba for the most part, it has an open road straight to the Gulf Coast. Winds calmed to 140mph while crossing Cuba, but they're expected to pick up again as the storm goes into some wickedly warm water. The eye has lost its definition as well, but it is already showing signs of coming back on the satellite loops.

New Orleans is in great danger from this Categroy 4 storm as of this moment. This eastward shift in the models has made it pretty clear that Gustav has the potential to wreak havoc on the Louisiana Gulf Coast, with New Orleans potentially in that dreadful right sector of the storm where the winds are highest. It's good that evacuations are well underway right now, but they need to move as fast as possible. If the track even shifts the tiniest bit east again, then New Orleans gets the full force of the storm. As of now, they are just slightly out of the full potential, but still within great danger. All it will take is a powerful storm surge that penetrates the levees to repeat 2005 all over again. I really do hope that this track shifts west and that the levees hold.

I'll talk about Tropical Storm Hanna more in depth after Gustav's landfall on Monday. As of now, Hanna looks like it will head up near the Carolinas or over the Florida Peninsula, but the models are all over the place with it. This week could be one of the most disastrous weather weeks in US history with the combination of these two storms.

8/29 - 6pm - Weather Channel Contest, Storms in the Area, Gustav

A couple of months ago I submitted one of my video forecasts to a video contest at the Weather Channel. Recently, I found out that I won the "Most Likely to be a Meteorologist" award for my entry and the results of the other contestants were posted today. Here's a link to the Weather Channel's Stephanie Abrams giving a rundown of all the winners: Click here. To see my contest entry, click here. Main contest page: click here.

Storms have popped up along the cold front coming through the area and are giving us a NICE dose of rain. We've needed it for nearly two weeks now. Most areas in East Louisville have seen rain today, but areas west of I-65 have not had that luxury. These areas might not see rain until late next week. Sunny skies and 90 degree temperatures will prevail for next week.

Hurricane Gustav is showing a little bit of a westward shift in forecast track as updated models come in. Here's the NHC's track:



The spaghetti chart shows the same trend as the NHC's, so I don't need to post that. This is still not looking good for New Orleans, but at least it looks like the eye might veer off to the west of the city. An area from East Texas to the Central Louisiana coast looks like the prime target area for landfall right now, at least until the models change again. Hanna is still churning in the Atlantic as a tropical storm with the potential to briefly become a hurricane before hitting the Bahamas.

8/28 - 5pm - A Concerning Consensus, Now with TS Hanna

I bet the guys and gals at the National Hurricane Center are in a frenzy right now. Not only do we have the daunting Tropical Storm Gustav, but now Tropical Storm Hanna has just been upgraded to a named storm as well.

First off, the track on Gustav has not really changed much since yesterday:



What gets me is the newest spaghetti chart, comparable with one I peeked at early this morning:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

That's a pretty specific landfall area for this far out, but of course this is not by any means set in stone. The consensus is somewhere west of New Orleans as a Category 3, which is bad news. The most powerful part of a hurricane resides in the northeast section, which would smack the Crescent City head-on if this scenario were to happen. Katrina hit just east of New Orleans, which gave Biloxi, MS and other cities around that area the worst of the storm. New Orleans got the surge from the storm, not so much the wind.

I'd say this is probably the worst track for New Orleans I've seen come off the models yet. The good part is that there is still a great deal of room for change in this track. This is no time to sit and wait for more models before taking action. If you have friends or relatives who reside in or near New Orleans or the western Gulf Coast, make sure you tell them it's time to get some serious plans together for evacuation. Barring any significant changes to the forecast track, official evacuations should start within the next couple days.

Here's Tropical Storm Hanna's track:



This should be a hurricane by Saturday, with no real good estimate on a location for landfall at the moment.

Compared to the tropics, our weather around here has been nice and calm for the past couple weeks. The bad part is that we need rain badly. A cold front coming through tomorrow should give us a chance for some rain, but it's not real high. We'll be seeing more brown grass for a little while if this doesn't produce any appreciable rain. Highs should stay around 90 for the weekend and into next week.

8/27 - 6pm - Gustav is Causing Quite a Stir

Things haven't changed much since yesterday aside from the fact that Gustav has been downgraded to a tropical storm for the time being. This storm will become a hurricane again on Friday barring any drastic forecast track changes. Here's the latest from the NHC:



The spaghetti chart is still fairly consistent with yesterday's, but with a slight shift to the east:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

I didn't want to mention this until the storm got halfway past Cuba for the sake of accuracy, but the national media already did this for me. New Orleans is at risk from this storm. I have been seeing the writing on the wall for the past 48 hours and I'm sure many of you have as well. The storm's forecast track has been for the most part pretty consistent on going into the Gulf. Just about every model agrees that this storm will end up hitting the Gulf Coast, but where is the issue. The general gist right now is somewhere between West Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I sure hope we're wrong about this and the forecast track changes, but I have a bad feeling at the moment. If these forecasts don't change by this Friday, talk of evacuations will skyrocket and the ball might already be rolling by then on getting people out of NOLA. Let's hope this doesn't need to happen. New Orleans is such a wonderful place to visit, which I did in June, and the culture there is simply unparalleled. Hopefully we'll get lucky and the models will trend a different way.

A few pockets of showers associated with the remnants of TS Fay like the ones we've been seeing all day are still around the area. They should dissipate overnight with a dry day ahead tomorrow. Next chance of rain will happen on Friday with a small probability of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Dry weather will prevail again for this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will touch 90 degrees for Labor Day and hold for the remainder of next week.