8/19 - 9pm - Fay is Going Where?

It looks like that crazy GFS model wasn't so bad after all. Yesterday it showed Tropical Storm Fay (it never did become a hurricane) going back into the Atlantic and then curving back inland. Now it looks like that's going to be the track. A batch of high pressure, the one that's been giving us all this nice weather, is suppressing Fay from tracking much further north. Here's the latest from the NHC:



The chart above says it will become a hurricane, but I don't know about that. The GFS is reinvigorating the storm enough on the current model run to do so, but if the track goes any further inland then you don't have as much exposure to warm water. The current forecast track would probably give it enough time to become a hurricane, so we'll watch to see if that sticks. There is still a possibility it could enter the Gulf again according to some models, but the storm would have to go way south to do that. I think the track from the NHC is pretty good for now.

Rain chances could pick up around here by this weekend, but that's all dependent on Fay's track right now. The GFS gives us not a drop of precipitation for a week, but that's based on the model's prediction of where Fay will go. The NAM is pretty dry too, but it takes Fay back into the Gulf of Mexico. We hope that doesn't happen. In any case our best chance of rain will come from Fay, if indeed it eventually comes north. Temperatures will hover in the low 90's until next week.