8/3 - 10am - Mid-Week Still Looks Rocky

I mentioned yesterday that we could see some severe weather during the middle of this week. After taking a look at the GFS and NAM models this morning, I can certainly say this might happen. The SPC issued a severe weather outlook yesterday with us in the line of fire for Wednesday. While we're still on the fringe, they still think we're in for some rough weather:



The GFS and NAM confirm this risk, so they're not the only ones saying this. This is all caused by a cold front coming through in relation to a trough sinking down into the Plains states. Instability will be fair, with CAPE values from 1500 to 2000 J/KG according to the SREF. I don't think we'll be in a MODERATE risk or anything higher because we're going to be in the zone of development when this happens. The storms will be immature when they reach us, unless that area shifts north and west. I have a feeling these storms will begin as broken cell clusters and then merge into a line as they mature, especially after the models painted something similar. I'll have more on this as the situation evolves.

In the mean time, it's going to be downright hot! We'll see 90 today, with mid 90's expected tomorrow. Tuesday is the near 100 day, with highs expected in the upper 90's. The heat index will soar over 100 on Tuesday, so don't forget to drink lots of water and limit your activity if possible.