2/27 - 4pm - On the Edge for Snow

What a storm last night! Winds gusted to 44mph at 3:54am this morning at my house with winds around 60 in other parts of the Metro. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued and bleachers were overturned at Ballard High School according to a storm report filed with the Storm Prediction Center.

The latest runs of both the GFS and NAM have snow just to our south for tomorrow and late tomorrow night. The heaviest moisture is so very close, but a tight gradient exists as you go north:


(click image to see larger view)

This morning, the HPC had a SLIGHT risk of 4+ inches of snow in Central Kentucky and points east, but the newest outlook pulls the risk area further south into Tennessee and far South Kentucky. At this point I don't think anything is written in stone because of the amount of irregularity in the models. Even though the general track of the storm has been pretty consistent, a 25-50 mile shift north in the storm track will bring us more than just the snow showers the models are forecasting at the moment. This kind of shift is not rare 24-36 hours out, so I would not discount the fact that we could have an accumulating snow late Saturday.

We should top out at around 32 tomorrow for a high, with upper 30's for Sunday and Monday. 40's are back for Tuesday, with 50's for the remainder of the week.