2/19 - 5pm - Rain to Snow

The latest model runs from both the GFS and NAM suggest warmer temperatures for Friday night into Saturday. We should actually warm to near 40 degrees by Saturday afternoon, but we'll drop below freezing quickly as the cold front passes on Saturday evening. This means that we'll see all rain from Friday night to Saturday afternoon, but we'll transition to snow somewhere around dinnertime on Saturday. I'm thinking that accumulations will be an inch or so at the most, but some areas could make out with 3 if the new 18z GFS verifies:

(click on any image to see a larger view)

Saturday afternoon - Low passes directly north of us and temperatures stay warm enough for all rain during the daytime.


Saturday evening - Clipper passes to our northeast and a cold front comes through. Temperatures drop below freezing and all rain changes to snow. A bit of moderate snow may come through, so accumulations of 2-3" are possible IF a good chunk of moisture comes from the southwest as the GFS advertises.

The 18z NAM has less moisture from the southwest to work with and hence less snow. Temperature profiles are similar though, so the time for changeover from rain to snow in the early evening looks pretty good at the moment. There's still some time for the models to change, but it's looking more and more like we'll see rain to snow with minor accumulations. We'll see if the models pull a fast one on the 0z runs and change things up.

In the meantime, expect temperatures near 40 tomorrow with sunny skies!