FIZZLE

Ah crud, it happened again. A major-looking snowstorm fizzles 24 hours before it gets here. In Louisville we'll get 1-2", that's it. Down south KY (not north for once), they're expecting 2-4". At least I didn't blow it after the snow fell (or lack thereof). I know ahead of time so I won't look like an idiot tomorrow when my blog reads 2-4" or something crazy like that. So bottom line:

1-2 inches of snow

Sorry!

Ahh... Now we get some numbers!

Finally! I've got numbers for you. My current thinking is:

• 2 to 4 INCHES OF SNOW (At the moment...)
  

You may say this is not too much but I'm thinking we will get the higher end of that estimate. This will occur over three periods of snow, Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday morning. Thursday night will be the heaviest time with a possible 1 to 3". The other two times will be an inch or two.

Now there are some risks still. It could go north/south of us. It could "miraculously" warm up like the last two disasters. The snow may not even show up.

With recent modeling though, this looks slim. The GFS is still trashed and NAM is weak so we're depending on the Euro/Canada/Japan bunch here. This estimate could change dramatically within 36 hours, but for now looks fairly solid. If anything, I think the snow totals could go up with a weaker model run biasing forecasts.

If it doesn't come, there are still many more significant snow chances on the way. But, as they say, the third time is a charm...

If things get really out of hand tomorrow (say, maybe a huge increase in accumulation estimates), I'll make the very first Ryan Weather Emergency Severe Weather Video. Again, only if I see a real change or at least a very solid forecast for over 3-4".

Can Someone Throw Me a Decent Model ?!!!

I've had it. The GFS is showing a little snow. The Canadian is showing a moderate snow. The European is showing a big snow! AHHHHH!!!! I can't take this anymore. And no I can't forecast accumulations yet with this monkey business going on!

Well, at least we can throw out the GFS (thank you!). The NWS said there was a "phasing" bug in it that is screwing up vertical placement for a storm, so no Nashville you will not get what you are seeing on the GFS. I've heard a loose consensus among Euro and Japan models, which is similar to yesterday.

All I can say for us is that the NWS had a temperature of 41 for Thursday on the Saturday forecast. Tonight, that was changed to 34 and a, oh yeah baby, 50% chance of snow. This is up from 40% yesterday. Our good friends at the HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center) also put out this lovely map this evening:


Yes, that is a >10% chance of 4 inches or greater, which is pretty good for three days out. This will change in the next few days, but if it is consistent tomorrow with today's run, I will start telling you to get excited.

Belski also upped his ante for snow too. He posted an image of the infamous Future Radar 3000, and it had a doozy of a storm in here on Thursday. Hmmm.... Euro+Japan+Canadian+FR 3000= Pretty good chance for storm, eh? I JUST CAN'T ESTIMATE ACCUMULATION YET!!!!

Do not get your hopes up just yet. But increase from yesterday if you want.

My head is spinning like a top

I must say that the GFS model lately is the most inconsistent lying piece of trash I've ever seen. One minute we have a HUGE snowstorm, the next run says flurries! I really want to believe the runs that say huge snowstorm, but it's hard when every other model run shows no snow at all!

Here's some good news though. I've been hunting around every single model and weather site in town to see what others think of this Thursday-Friday issue. Some are rain to snow and highs in the upper 30's lower 40's (NWS, WLKY). Others are saying mid 30's and the snow occurring at night when in the 20's (WAVE, WHAS, WDRB). Well, with WLKY being the odd man out with the NWS, I'm going to stick with the channel 3, 11, 41 predictions.

I've also heard rumblings that the European and Japanese weather models have been consistent with us getting snow Thursday night-Friday morning. Talk about outsourcing your weather. Of the three "snow only" stations I mentioned, one has come out to say that they are not paying attention too much to the GFS and sticking with the Euro and Japan models. I'll back those forecasts due to their stability.

Belski's blog had two options for storms and I am tending to agree based on some modeling I've been looking at today. He sees either 2 medium storms or 1 huge storm. Estimates of 4 or more inches were also thrown around.

I still will not estimate on accumulations until I can get a couple more USA based models to chime in on this. Do not get your hopes up yet. Although, don't let this possibility leave your mind. I need to see some consistency before I throw my hat into the accumulation/any snow at all ring, which hopefully will be tomorrow. For now, take any accumulation estimates with a grain of salt, at least until Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

The Best GFS model EVER!!!

After a dismal Friday full of GFS model runs, my ship has come into the harbor. This morning, as I showed in the video, the 12z GFS brought back 95% of the snow we were seeing on the models on Thursday. The most recent 18z came in with 120% of what I've seen before:



I nearly had a cow when I saw this. The 540 line is right over Louisville and that blue shade is .5" of moisture (at least 5" snow) within that six hour period. Of course this system has more snow in front and behind that period, but that was the heaviest time. Folks, if this model still looks like this or better on Tuesday, there will be some happy meteorologists in town. On Wednesday night or Thursday afternoon I may have an emergency video if this thing really gets in gear.

Give me 1 or 2 more days and I may start estimating accumulations. I need to let it be seen on the NAM model (4 days out is the furthest it goes), which is super high resolution and way more accurate. If this thing shows itself on the NAM I will have a complete cow.

There is a risk of temperatures being warm still. These storms are notorious for pulling warm air up from Tennessee at the last minute. Although, I'm seeing a little colder temps on this one than the one I messed up on a week ago. Don't get excited yet, I will tell you when you can.

I noticed that the NWS had temps near 40 for us on Thursday. I do not agree with that in the slightest. They base their forecasts off of every consecutive model run, including the buggy ones. I'm still gunning for mid to lower 30's for Thursday. The heaviest stuff is plotted to be on Friday early morning, which should be cold enough, hopefully. $10 says that snow forecasts will be upgraded all around town from all the TV stations and probably the NWS. Remember: This could all change tomorrow.

Forecast Video 1-27-07

The GFS recovered just like I said it would in my last post...

The Start of An Epic Journey

Here we are everybody, sitting in the end of January with no snow to shake a stick at. This weekend will harbor rain/flurries on Saturday and snow showers on Sunday. So what?

Looking beyond the weekend still has question marks, but some have been cleared up on the models today. Let's start with our 6z GFS model today:


You'll notice a medium-well cooked storm on our map right over metro Louisville. Now comes the same storm on the 12z model:



Or shall I say the lack of the storm? This model scared me a slight bit, but I knew that GFS models are NOTORIOUS for erasing storms when it feels like it. Here's the 18z:



She's back, not as strong, but back. If you'll notice, the timing of the storm is a little different on each model. The first guns for midday Friday, the second on late Thursday, and the last midday Thursday. I've seen good consensus for Thursday so I'll keep it there. I know it doesn't look bad on the 18z model, but I think the model is recovering from the 12z and may strengthen the storm to its true form by either the 0z tonight or the 6z tomorrow. Every meteorological agency in town is gunning for some type of snow on Thursday at the moment.

I can't estimate accumulations with the GFS model waffling more than Waffle House, but I hope it goes back to where the models had it yesterday which was one impressive storm. I don't think temperatures should be too much of a problem for this because of this record cold airmass coming in, worst case scenario AT THIS MOMENT would be sleet to snow. Again, I don't know anything more.

I'll wake up early tomorrow and check the models before I do my forecast video. Hopefully I'll have good news.

Looking beyond that, we have more snow chances coming up.

I really do hope the GFS stabilizes like it did on Thursday so I can take a crack at accumulations. I know that sometimes things don't happen the way that I and other meteo-men/women say they do, but we're just atmospheric messengers. Sometimes all of this computer power and fancy math just doesn't factor in a slight change in conditions that can lead to a huge change in weather. All I'm saying is that we aren't God, we simply can't tell you exactly everything at the exact moment. Look for my video tomorrow at lunch time!

A little warmer then BOOM!

That's right folks, after a quick weekend warm-up to the 40's we'll see temperatures hit the ground into the lower 30's all week this week and colder next. We could see a quick clipper like the last two on Sunday.

Here's the thing about this cold. It's going to allow a great deal of low pressure systems pass through for the next week or two. What does that mean? Well I think you can only guess that I'm going to mention the "S" word. BUT, it is still way to early to determine who, what and where on these systems. Nonetheless, it opens up a huge loophole for any development late next week. The storms will occur next week late, maybe Super Bowl timing? There will be storms, but where exactly will they form? Things have been consistent on the GFS model, which I like at the moment, but you know what happened the last time I listened to a GFS model? It didn't snow! But, that was due to a really close temperature gradient. These storms will have a ton of cold air to work with I think, especially because I am seeing 20's for this time frame. Of course this is always subject to radical change. But if you remember, I've been talking about early February as being D-day for our snow storms. Let's hope that prediction keeps up.

I'll have more in-depth analysis of these systems on my blog tomorrow and extended analysis on my video Saturday around lunch time.

Episode II: The Clipper Strikes Back

Here comes another clipper system tonight, just like the one we had last night. We got about an inch, which melted by 1pm this afternoon. Could be some minor accumulations, but don't get excited.

Long term is looking odd. I see potential for the mighty snow storm to end all storms, but then I also see a warm-up in the extreme long range (16 days out). As you know, the GFS model likes to make false predictions this far out so take it with a small grain of salt. Again, I still need a couple days to see how these potential storms could develop or not develop...

Next week you will walk out of your house and say...

When you walk outside next week, especially in the morning, feel free to shout any "discouraging word" of your choice towards the air. Folks, its going to get so cold that you will want to. I'm talking lower 20's to maybe even 10's for high temperatures, that's it. That's the price you'll have to pay for some possible snow chances into that time period. One thing that we can probably circumvent next week is the problem of having precipitation but no cold air. I know I've been heckled about the busted snow forecast on Sunday all week so far. Understand though that even the National Weather Service called for an accumulating snow, and this warm air we received was just out of the blue.

Enough about history, let's look forward now. This cold air I've been harping on will harbor some clipper systems (they may call them Alberta Clippers or Saskatchewan Screamers on TV after the Canadian provinces where these systems form). These could drop somewhere around 1-3 inches if you get a good one. I am only seeing flurries and dustings though through Jan 31st with these though. Around Feb 1st, things start getting interesting. For a few model runs now, a Feb 2-5 storm has been showing up that's not a clipper system. I can't speculate on accumulations until this weekend, but if this system gingerly slides north a little bit and brings the heavier moisture, it's not out of the question that this could be our "Storm of the season" if our cards are played right.

Again, temperatures are ripe for snow. I've noticed that moisture amounts are accurate only a week out so I can't really speculate on any of the Feb storms I'm seeing right now coming into the neighborhood. Just know this, come February 1st there will be storms nearing the area due to increased jet activity.

One last thing, don't write of our winter weather chances yet because its almost February. Tons of our historic snow storms came in the Feb-March period, especially the 22.4" 1998 one. What I'm trying to get across is that we are not done yet, proof of this lying on our current computer models for Feb 1-7, which are very active in this neck of the woods. Think snowy thoughts!

A Lull in Excitement

Hmm... What do I say? There's rain/flurries Tuesday through Saturday, temperatures holding in the low 40's and upper 30's, and not a lick of sunshine. Talk about depression folks! I heard on the radio that today (Jan 22) is the most depressing day of the year as calculated by a group of scientists. Well, they're right. Not a drop of snow (accumulating) for at least a week! I don't know if I can live with myself that long...

Anyway, there is a chance of a pretty good storm brewing in the area of Feb 2-5 based on current weather model soundings. It's been waffling worse than the griddles at Waffle House, but nonetheless there is SOMETHING on the maps. At this point, I can't estimate time, placement, temperature, or even amount of snow for that matter! Something working for us though is cold air, and a load of it. Temperatures are supposed to get into the 20's and 10's for highs next week, which exponentially increases our chances for any snow. That means we can avoid an embarrassing busted snow forecast due to warm temperatures. It always seems we are just 1 degree away from snow here, so 20's for highs is a welcome change. At the moment the eggs, flour, and sugar are ready to make snow brownies, we just need a mixer to come and make it happen. I can assure you that my tone will lighten up by Friday as we peer into next week's snow possibilities, but now there's not much to say...

Soooo close...

No snow. None at ALL! We knew it would be close, but we thought we would get snow! There was a fair amount of sleet, since all of the trees were bent over. It was 32.4 degrees all night, just a fraction of a degree off for getting snow. Don't feel bad, there will be more chances for snow in the coming weeks...

The Final Countdown

Here we are after waiting nearly 2 months, 6 hours away from our first measurable snowfall. I have to say that this could be close folks, there is only a 20 mile gradient between rain-sleet-snow. If warm air streams in here just 10 miles north of where it was supposed to be, its over. Already we're supposed to have rain in the afternoon, just a little though. North of Louisville is an almost assured 2-4 inches, but Louisville is the battleground between snow and rain. I hope to wake up and at least see a coating with the assurance of a few more inches. Still banking on a heavy spirt of snow between 5am-9am, which would make one think we could get a huge storm. In effect though, it will not last long enough to put down more than a couple inches.

Also, forecast videos shouldn't take that long to put out anymore. I was still working on graphics this morning and got way behind. I hope to put one out every Saturday, but you know I can't be thoroughly consistent on that due to things going on. While I'm around town I will post photos from my cell on here too if something neat happens.

On that note, if you want to play in the snow tomorrow, wake up early. It will be rain after 12pm I think, so get your playing done before 11-11:30am. Have Fun!

Updated Forecast Video

Here's a new forecast video. It outlines the basic gist of our next snow event tonight...

To the Wire...

Gee whiz, I nearly had a heart attack looking at all of the models today. At about 3pm this afternoon I thought our snowstorm was gone, all gone. Why? Well, we got some good old fashioned snowstorm-busting warm air in the forecast and I saw that we would get the snow (1-3" still) but by late morning it was going to turn to ALL rain after a brief bout of sleet. Of course, rain melts all snow.

After a few hours of depression and homework, I am starting to turn a corner now...

The models are slowly letting up on this warm air trend, and tomorrow it may be off the maps completely I heard! We have the potential for a ceiling of 5" of pure snow if it stays below the 32-33 degree range. If you do put the weather into your devotional dealings with higher existences, please ask for a high of 32.2 degrees (exact freezing point) and no more! Southern Indiana will get the blunt of the storm with a possible 3-6" area, but you know that's always what happens. If we can kindly usher (then kick with a steel toed boot) the warm air out the door on Sat-Sun., we are in good shape. Henry Margusity at Accuweather.com is still banking on 3-6" as of 12:00pm this afternoon (even after the warm models) for any point along the Ohio River, Including Evansville, Louisville, and Cincinnati. I wouldn't mind a 1 hour light sleet session either, which looks inevitable at this point. I'll tell you what, sleet is more of a school canceler than any type of precip around. A quarter inch of that, and you're done...

You'll be able to see my new forecast video tomorrow late morning to early afternoon.

After seeing the 18z GFS and the 6pm News...

Things are really starting to heat up now (don't take that literally). I saw the newest GFS model and I will reassert my 2-4 inch approximation. The 12z wasn't a good model run to base my previous discussion off of I found out. After watching the news, I still saw the same old 32-37 for a high and a couple inches of snow for only Sunday now, not Sat.-Sun, but just Sunday. This is good because that means the storm is slowing down a bit. What this means is that it will start early Sunday morning and end later on Sunday (afternoon-mid evening). I think the temperatures for Sunday will drop tomorrow on all of the stations due to the recent models. You know they only change forecasts once or twice a day, so it takes a day for the forecast to reflect these changes. School cancellation chances have looked better due to this but I'm not going to touch my 50% chance until tomorrow when I can get the other models to chime in on this storm accurately. Belski made some interesting statements at 6:00:

• He is still holding out for a higher than 2-4 inch snow total. He's in agreement that the storm is slowing a bit. He's also weary of the amount of weakening that the model has in store for this storm, because things coming from the TX-AR area tend to do odd things in terms of strengthening.
  
• Also, we may be under a Winter Storm Watch by tomorrow afternoon (hallelujah!) once they start making some real snow total forecasts. There is also a slight risk for up to a quarter of an inch of ice...

As you could tell, I love a winter storm watch. The National Weather Service in Louisville was just guessing 2-3" today, but they said that is really speculative at this point. The rest of the meteorologists are just saying we are in an "all snow area" meaning this will not start as rain or other messy things like that. They all seem to be stopping short of saying more than 4". Looking at the moisture totals, there certainly is a real possibility for 4 or more inches. Like I said earlier this afternoon, there will be a flurry of videos (pun intended) this weekend relating to the storm. I'll be out early on Sunday morning with my ruler and marker to count off the inches on my videos. I think things will really escalate in terms of forecasting tomorrow. But who knows, I'm just some sophomore looking at GFS models and watching the news, I could be all wrong and we get nothing. Although I really doubt that.

Leaving you tonight my loyal readers, I posted a hypothetical storm that may or may not develop. This could potentially come on February 2nd, although I doubt it will be this big and the placement may be just completely wrong. As of now it would be a major snow storm with 6+ inches of snow. Remember that it's still 16 days out, a lot is subject to change, but here it is just so you can dream about it...

Hold your breath!

Things are beginning to get a little more clear for our Saturday-Sunday (Not Sun-Mon anymore). The temperature is a little warmer on the models today than yesterday, which is making me a little nervous about a bust on this thing. BUT, there is still ample room for snow here, luckily most of it falling in the evening and early hours. If we can get at least 2 inches laid down by 9am Sunday, we'll be okay I think. The reflection of light from the snow cover will hold temperatures down and make way for any additional accumulation throughout Sunday. There is also some uncertainty about the storm track and intensity, since this will be a weakening system once it reaches us. If weakening from New Mexico to Arkansas doesn't occur, we could have 4-6 inches. At any rate I think we are in good shape for 2-3 inches. 4 inches is possible with today's model runs, we just have to HOLD OUR BREATH that the temperature stays below 32 degrees all through Sunday so we can get the maximum snow possible. I know John Belski is gunning for a 32 degree high, and I have been seeing other forecasts starting to edge lower to that number as we have gotten closer to this. Still a toss up for school cancellation. I am concerned that the storm is occurring a little earlier than I thought because it has more room to melt/evaporate before school on Monday. They put brine on the roads today in preparation for this, which really makes sense because I think it takes at least 24 hours to cure. There are supposed to be some light snow showers on Monday-Tuesday that could (hopefully) refresh our top layer of snow on the ground for new sledding tracks in the backyard. Stay tuned for continuous video and text updates from Ryan Weather starting Friday evening and really kicking into high gear on Saturday afternoon when the snow starts.

School Closing Possibilities...

After a few quick Googles, I've seen that its up to the superintendent on whether or not to have school. Recalling recent years, I seem to remember getting out for 3" once in 2002 or 2003, so I think a school cancellation could be in the cards. Don't plan on it 100% though because there still is a chance (and I mean small) this could fizzle. I'll stand with a 50% for closure of school now, but if things hover towards 3-5", I'll up it to 70%.

Excitement is Brewing...

HOLY COW!!!

Yes that really sums up my excitement for the upcoming Sunday-Monday snow event. I'm just loving every consecutive GFS model for this thing that comes out, each one is like a Christmas present. The latest (18z) model shows the freezing line (540-line) below us the WHOLE length of the storm. That means this will be a 100% snow-ice storm, not some pansy rain-snow business. I really want to give kudos to those meteorologists who came clean about this thing today in the media. I'm glad we can at least get some info to the masses about this thing in case it intensifies (there is a very distinct possibility still) so that the city can prepare. We bought a couple new sleds at Target today (on sale for $2.50 a pop!) for our snow event, so check out Target if you need some emergency snow sleds. I've been asked the question at least 5 times today: Are we going to have school cancellations? I'm iffy right now, but I'll give you a 50-50 on this, because this could very well start as a mini sleet storm with snow on top. Here are the most recent Christmas presents (GFS models) for our storm:




28th storm is looking good too:




I'm still gunning for 2-4 inches on the Sunday-Monday, but it could go higher by the looks of things (I heard rumblings of a possible 6 inches in the region in some places). I'll do some research on school cancellation criteria and report back later tonight...

Forecast Video for 1-16-07

Here's a new Forecast Video...

I see 2 storms in the cards...

The time has come when we say farewell to this odd El Nino sort of warm weather and let the cold stormy weather walk down the aisle. There are two storms I'm eying in particular that support my thesis here:

1. The first one will start on the morning of the 22nd as some drizzle. As we move into the afternoon the drizzle may start to turn into light rain. My guess is that by 7pm or so, there will be moderate snow falling because the temps are going to take a pretty good plunge. This isn't a backside of a front flurry business. I think we're talking more about a light rain to snow with the EMPHASIS being on the snow as the moisture really picks up after the temps plunge as the front goes through. Totals you say? Hmm... Hard, very hard to discern at this point... I'll take a swing and say 2 to 4 inches. But you say "Nobody else's forecasts have that!" Well this is because the GFS model just started settling on this today, and nobody's going to get on the snowboat until Thursday I think.
2. If storm 1 turns out to be a fizzle, here's storm 2, on the night of the 28th. This one's gonna be big folks. I've seen moisture indications agreeing around .4 to .5 inches of precipitation. Do a quick snow conversion (I'm gonna say 15:1 due to temps being in the 20's) and we could easily pick up anywhere from 5-8 inches of snow, a substatial snowstorm by Kentucky standards. You say that this is 2 weeks out and its rubbish... I do agree a little bit with you because it could disappear from the maps tomorrow. BUT, we've got cold air REALLY digging in and an ACTIVE lower jet stream, which equals a moderate Ohio Valley storm and a HUGE storm for NY, Philly, and Boston. And another thing is that a storm on the 28th has been on the models, with great intensity, since 3 days ago. I know the GFS is flaky, but for a storm to remain and be consistent on the GFS for nearly half a week should set off alarm bells.

So to sum this all up, we will eventually get snow, and hopefully lots of it. I see February as being a very active and snowy month due to some really cold air masses setting up shop in the lower Midwest. Everyone just needs to be patient, there is still 2 good months of solid winter to go. Don't be surprised if I change my whole thesis on this tomorrow, but so far things are remaining consistent. John Belski's 14-day forecast had highs in the TEENS by the 24th, so bundle up!

Welcome to the Blog!

Well, here is my first attempt at blogging. This blog will have my input on our crazy weather in Kentuckiana. I'll try to update as much as possible, but sometimes this blog may be dormant for a week or so. But rest assured that I'll be very active during severe weather...