I must say that the GFS model lately is the most inconsistent lying piece of trash I've ever seen. One minute we have a HUGE snowstorm, the next run says flurries! I really want to believe the runs that say huge snowstorm, but it's hard when every other model run shows no snow at all!
Here's some good news though. I've been hunting around every single model and weather site in town to see what others think of this Thursday-Friday issue. Some are rain to snow and highs in the upper 30's lower 40's (NWS, WLKY). Others are saying mid 30's and the snow occurring at night when in the 20's (WAVE, WHAS, WDRB). Well, with WLKY being the odd man out with the NWS, I'm going to stick with the channel 3, 11, 41 predictions.
I've also heard rumblings that the European and Japanese weather models have been consistent with us getting snow Thursday night-Friday morning. Talk about outsourcing your weather. Of the three "snow only" stations I mentioned, one has come out to say that they are not paying attention too much to the GFS and sticking with the Euro and Japan models. I'll back those forecasts due to their stability.
Belski's blog had two options for storms and I am tending to agree based on some modeling I've been looking at today. He sees either 2 medium storms or 1 huge storm. Estimates of 4 or more inches were also thrown around.
I still will not estimate on accumulations until I can get a couple more USA based models to chime in on this. Do not get your hopes up yet. Although, don't let this possibility leave your mind. I need to see some consistency before I throw my hat into the accumulation/any snow at all ring, which hopefully will be tomorrow. For now, take any accumulation estimates with a grain of salt, at least until Monday or Tuesday at the latest.
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