Things are really starting to heat up now (don't take that literally). I saw the newest GFS model and I will reassert my 2-4 inch approximation. The 12z wasn't a good model run to base my previous discussion off of I found out. After watching the news, I still saw the same old 32-37 for a high and a couple inches of snow for only Sunday now, not Sat.-Sun, but just Sunday. This is good because that means the storm is slowing down a bit. What this means is that it will start early Sunday morning and end later on Sunday (afternoon-mid evening). I think the temperatures for Sunday will drop tomorrow on all of the stations due to the recent models. You know they only change forecasts once or twice a day, so it takes a day for the forecast to reflect these changes. School cancellation chances have looked better due to this but I'm not going to touch my 50% chance until tomorrow when I can get the other models to chime in on this storm accurately. Belski made some interesting statements at 6:00:
- He is still holding out for a higher than 2-4 inch snow total. He's in agreement that the storm is slowing a bit. He's also weary of the amount of weakening that the model has in store for this storm, because things coming from the TX-AR area tend to do odd things in terms of strengthening.
- Also, we may be under a Winter Storm Watch by tomorrow afternoon (hallelujah!) once they start making some real snow total forecasts. There is also a slight risk for up to a quarter of an inch of ice...
As you could tell, I love a winter storm watch. The National Weather Service in Louisville was just guessing 2-3" today, but they said that is really speculative at this point. The rest of the meteorologists are just saying we are in an "all snow area" meaning this will not start as rain or other messy things like that. They all seem to be stopping short of saying more than 4". Looking at the moisture totals, there certainly is a real possibility for 4 or more inches. Like I said earlier this afternoon, there will be a flurry of videos (pun intended) this weekend relating to the storm. I'll be out early on Sunday morning with my ruler and marker to count off the inches on my videos. I think things will really escalate in terms of forecasting tomorrow. But who knows, I'm just some sophomore looking at GFS models and watching the news, I could be all wrong and we get nothing. Although I really doubt that.
Leaving you tonight my loyal readers, I posted a hypothetical storm that may or may not develop. This could potentially come on February 2nd, although I doubt it will be this big and the placement may be just completely wrong. As of now it would be a major snow storm with 6+ inches of snow. Remember that it's still 16 days out, a lot is subject to change, but here it is just so you can dream about it...
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