The Start of An Epic Journey

Here we are everybody, sitting in the end of January with no snow to shake a stick at. This weekend will harbor rain/flurries on Saturday and snow showers on Sunday. So what?

Looking beyond the weekend still has question marks, but some have been cleared up on the models today. Let's start with our 6z GFS model today:


You'll notice a medium-well cooked storm on our map right over metro Louisville. Now comes the same storm on the 12z model:



Or shall I say the lack of the storm? This model scared me a slight bit, but I knew that GFS models are NOTORIOUS for erasing storms when it feels like it. Here's the 18z:



She's back, not as strong, but back. If you'll notice, the timing of the storm is a little different on each model. The first guns for midday Friday, the second on late Thursday, and the last midday Thursday. I've seen good consensus for Thursday so I'll keep it there. I know it doesn't look bad on the 18z model, but I think the model is recovering from the 12z and may strengthen the storm to its true form by either the 0z tonight or the 6z tomorrow. Every meteorological agency in town is gunning for some type of snow on Thursday at the moment.

I can't estimate accumulations with the GFS model waffling more than Waffle House, but I hope it goes back to where the models had it yesterday which was one impressive storm. I don't think temperatures should be too much of a problem for this because of this record cold airmass coming in, worst case scenario AT THIS MOMENT would be sleet to snow. Again, I don't know anything more.

I'll wake up early tomorrow and check the models before I do my forecast video. Hopefully I'll have good news.

Looking beyond that, we have more snow chances coming up.

I really do hope the GFS stabilizes like it did on Thursday so I can take a crack at accumulations. I know that sometimes things don't happen the way that I and other meteo-men/women say they do, but we're just atmospheric messengers. Sometimes all of this computer power and fancy math just doesn't factor in a slight change in conditions that can lead to a huge change in weather. All I'm saying is that we aren't God, we simply can't tell you exactly everything at the exact moment. Look for my video tomorrow at lunch time!