We may see some storms tomorrow morning, but scattered storms around the area tomorrow could be strong to severe. I don't think there will be much in the way of severe weather with the cloudy mess in the morning limiting our instability potential for the afternoon.
Another chance for severe weather happens on Friday (Oaks):
Friday's severe weather chances will probably be more elevated due to better shear and instability (maybe up to 1000 J/KG). Even though this is not the best setup for a widespread severe weather event, these storms will fire in the afternoon as to our west and will be in here for the late afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Temperatures will be near 80, but these thunderstorms could pose problems for the Kentucky Oaks if they pass through before 6pm.
Derby is still up in the air with regards to rain. The models are still in disagreement, but I'm going to go with a few sprinkles, overcast skies, and a high near 70 for Saturday. As I've been saying for the last few days, this still needs time to be hammered out.
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