A stationary boundary stretched across Mississippi is giving folks to the south quite a bit of warm weather this evening but we're cooling down here in Starkville as we remain on the north side of it. An associated area of low pressure currently in Texas will move through the region later this week, triggering showers on Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will take a small tumble on those days we'll warm up vigorously into the 70's by the weekend. Check out your CampusConnect Forecast below for all the details!
Showing posts with label front. Show all posts
Showing posts with label front. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
4/2 - 10:45pm - After Some Rain, a Warm Weekend in Mississippi
A stationary boundary stretched across Mississippi is giving folks to the south quite a bit of warm weather this evening but we're cooling down here in Starkville as we remain on the north side of it. An associated area of low pressure currently in Texas will move through the region later this week, triggering showers on Wednesday and Thursday. While temperatures will take a small tumble on those days we'll warm up vigorously into the 70's by the weekend. Check out your CampusConnect Forecast below for all the details!Wednesday, March 6, 2013
3/5 - 11:55pm - Warmer Weather Ahead in East Mississippi!
This morning's cold front brought rain and wind to the Golden Triangle but we've now cleared that out of here as the front is well to our east. Temperatures for tomorrow will be cooler than they were today by about ten degrees but a warming trend will take us well into the 70's by the weekend. How about that... we've gone from snow flurries to warm temperatures in the 70's within the space of a week! Check out my latest CampusConnect Forecast video below for all the details.
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Wednesday, January 23, 2013
1/23 - 7:15pm - Rainy End to the Week, Nice Weekend!
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| Tonight's low clouds aren't showing up well on infrared satellite imagery. |
Sunday, January 20, 2013
1/20 - 2:45pm - Bitter Cold Air is Arriving Soon!
Temperatures in the 30's were common last night in West Tennessee and North Mississippi but temperatures are poised to drop much further than that tonight. A dry and relatively marginal cold front is moving through West Tennessee right now and that cold front is the first of two cold shots for the region. This will put lows down into the mid 20's in West Tennessee and lower to mid 30's in North Mississippi as cold air pours in behind the front. This cold air won't allow temperatures to rise much during the day tomorrow either, with highs in the upper 30's closer to Jackson, TN and closer to 50 down toward the Golden Triangle in Mississippi.During the day tomorrow the second of two shots of cold air will pour in as another cold front passes by. This one will bring the über cold weather that we'll see on Monday night and Tuesday morning. The winds behind this front will be out of the north, meaning the source region (AKA where the air is coming from) for the cold air we'll see during this time will be in the Upper Midwest where they'll be below zero. While that kind of cold isn't expected, mid to upper teens will be common in West Tennessee with readings closer to 20 or 25 degrees down toward North Mississippi. A low of 16 or 17 degrees in Jackson, TN on Tuesday morning looks pretty reasonable given the intensity of the cold air spilling down. While our neighbors to the north may scoff at this being branded as "bitterly cold" in the South, this is still some incredibly cold air. Pets will certainly need to be inside during this time and people need to be bundled up as much as possible. Limit your time outside on Tuesday morning, if possible, and be sure to cover any exposed skin if you do have to be out. Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will warm to a more reasonable lower 30's in West Tennessee and lower 40's in North Mississippi.
Temperatures will moderate during the week thanks to the return of wind flow from the south. This return flow means more moisture in the air across the region. You might guess that this warmer air and more moisture will eventually lead to rain chances... and you'd be right! A low pressure system and associated upper-level shortwave disturbance will track through near the end of the week, bringing rain chances. There's some disagreement between various models over whether this will start on Thursday or Friday. The GFS model's timeline on this is posted below. My guess at this point is that the timeline you see below will be delayed by about 12 hours, so expect rain chances to creep into the region ahead of this low on Thursday afternoon and continue through the night into Friday.
It's not out of the realm of possibility that a little bit of wintry precipitation may fall on the backside of this system on Friday. If cold air flows in behind a cold front associated with this system fast enough then some of the last few rain showers could mix with or change over to a brief period of snow. The GFS identifies Kentuckiana as being the prime target for this but we all know that model has been trending too warm lately in all the winter weather events we've dealt with. So in my mind, West Tennessee is in a potential area for this mix or snow switchover to occur. We're too early for specifics on this so the forecast will have to be fine-tuned during the week. Stay warm!
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Monday, November 26, 2012
11/26 - 2:15pm - Rainy Start to the Week, Severe to the Southwest
Had enough of the rain in Starkville this morning and afternoon? Just wait, there's more! An area of moist air ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight is inspiring the development of numerous showers and those will eventually lead to some thunderstorms late tonight. Some of the storms to our southwest could be severe but it's looking more and more like we won't have quite enough moisture and instability to get that kind of storm activity closer to the Golden Triangle. A Slight Risk of severe weather has been issued for areas west of I-55 due to the possibility for severe storms toward Jackson and Vicksburg. Once the cold front sweeps through tonight it'll leave us with cloudy skies for a good chunk of the day tomorrow before things clear out for Wednesday and Thursday.The weekend will feature some clouds and possibly a shower here and there but overall we'll be seeing one warm end to the month of November as temperatures get close to and surge past 70 degrees! Check out the video below for your detailed CampusConnect forecast.
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Monday, November 12, 2012
11/12 - 2pm - A Frigid Fall Return in Progress!
The clouds are clearing earlier than expected across Mississippi, which is good news for those looking for a more picturesque day outside. Unfortunately this will not save us from an incredible drop in temperature this evening across the Golden Triangle. The cold front that came through earlier this morning is allowing northwesterly winds to bring in an arctic air mass that will help plunge us to around the freezing mark by early tomorrow morning. If you're looking for something a little warmer than that, just wait. Temperatures will break into the 60's again by Wednesday as sunny skies continue to stick around through most of the week. Your full forecast with all the details is available in the video below!
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Wednesday, July 18, 2012
7/18 - 10:40pm - Storm Spotting in Your Own Front Yard
Most storms that erupted today across Kentuckiana and West Tennessee were pretty typical. For the most part they were disorganized and each individual storm didn't last very long but a few did get strong enough for some severe thunderstorm warnings. Unfortunately these storms did pack some nasty cloud-to-ground lightning in the city of Louisville and that sparked some structure fires. Later in the day around 7:30pm just after most storms had exited the city there was a spectacular collision of two outflow boundaries near the I-64/I-264 interchange in St. Matthews. These outflow boundaries, one from Clark County, IN and the other from Shelby County, KY in this case, are just rushes of cold air that come out of other storms and create something akin to a miniature cold front. When these two boundaries collided they created an incredible amount of convergence which birthed a complex of storms right over the city. We're talking about the radar being clear at 7:30pm and there being storms on radar in East Louisville at 7:36pm. This collision also created some weak rotation briefly and dropped quite a base cloud as the complex moved south. The cloud created quite a show in my front yard and I was quite surprised to see such a well-defined (and briefly rotating!) updraft base as I was driving down my driveway this afternoon!
Now that all that excitement is over, we're going to be in for more storms tomorrow and Friday. A cold front will be approaching Kentucky and Tennessee from the Upper Midwest that should create a focus for storm development or at least create storms that will send outflow boundaries toward the south to create more storms. These will largely be powered by the heat and humidity that we'll be seeing over the next couple of days but with the front coming into play there's a possibility that storms may form earlier in the day or even possibly in the morning tomorrow and Friday.
Strong winds will be possible with any storm that forms along with more of the same lightning that we've seen around the region today. Storms could reach severe limits thanks to all the moisture in the environment and the front moving closer so the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow for all of Kentucky and some of Northwest Tennessee. Storms will again be possible on Friday as the front moves through, but we'll dry out behind the front for the weekend.
Now that all that excitement is over, we're going to be in for more storms tomorrow and Friday. A cold front will be approaching Kentucky and Tennessee from the Upper Midwest that should create a focus for storm development or at least create storms that will send outflow boundaries toward the south to create more storms. These will largely be powered by the heat and humidity that we'll be seeing over the next couple of days but with the front coming into play there's a possibility that storms may form earlier in the day or even possibly in the morning tomorrow and Friday.
Strong winds will be possible with any storm that forms along with more of the same lightning that we've seen around the region today. Storms could reach severe limits thanks to all the moisture in the environment and the front moving closer so the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather tomorrow for all of Kentucky and some of Northwest Tennessee. Storms will again be possible on Friday as the front moves through, but we'll dry out behind the front for the weekend.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
7/15 - 7pm CDT - The Heat Returns!
A few showers are ongoing across West Tennnessee right now, but this is quite a bit less than what was expected today. Dry air rotating around a area of high pressure has moved into the region because this high has nudged a bit further westward than originally forecast. This means that a majority of the shower activity has stayed west of the Mississippi River, but a couple thundershowers could still pop up before sunset. These should mostly dissipate before the overnight hours.
Heat and humidity are on their way back as a large ridge of high pressure moves eastward over the next few days. This should surpress storm chances a little bit, but not entirely because temperatures aloft will still be a little cool. This heat at the surface and the slightly cool air aloft should create the typical "summertime pop-up storm" environment that we're used to seeing in the afternoons this time of year. Temperatures underneath this ridge of high pressure should be in the lower to middle 90's in West Tenneessee and middle 90's until Wednesday in Kentuckiana. A front dropping south on Thursday will trigger higher rain chances in both Kentuckiana and West Tenneessee and there could be some slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for Kentuckiana. Things look to remain hot all week long in West Tennessee!
I'm in Jackson, TN right now getting ready for the 10 O'Clock news on WBBJ this evening before going back to Louisville tomorrow. Check out my Hokey Weather Fact from last night's show on the left and be sure to tune in to WBBJ tonight at 10 for a new one!
Heat and humidity are on their way back as a large ridge of high pressure moves eastward over the next few days. This should surpress storm chances a little bit, but not entirely because temperatures aloft will still be a little cool. This heat at the surface and the slightly cool air aloft should create the typical "summertime pop-up storm" environment that we're used to seeing in the afternoons this time of year. Temperatures underneath this ridge of high pressure should be in the lower to middle 90's in West Tenneessee and middle 90's until Wednesday in Kentuckiana. A front dropping south on Thursday will trigger higher rain chances in both Kentuckiana and West Tenneessee and there could be some slightly cooler temperatures behind the front for Kentuckiana. Things look to remain hot all week long in West Tennessee!
I'm in Jackson, TN right now getting ready for the 10 O'Clock news on WBBJ this evening before going back to Louisville tomorrow. Check out my Hokey Weather Fact from last night's show on the left and be sure to tune in to WBBJ tonight at 10 for a new one!
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
7/10 - 11:55pm - A Tale of Two TV Stations
Let's start with weather first, shall we? Today was hot in Louisville, much hotter than anticipated because dry air that made its way into the area allowed temperatures to rise quite a bit. We're talking about a high temperature that was 95 degrees today, which even though is very warm, it was still cooler than what we experienced during last week's massive heat wave. Tomorrow should be a little cooler as moister air moves in again from the south.Daily rain chances will be ramping up Thursday in Louisville as a trough develops to the west of the Mississippi River. It's already been raining in West Tennessee a bit this week, but more is on the way through the weekend as this trough gets its act together and a warm front moves northward. The rain is still needed in West Tennessee as drought conditions persist throughout the region. This rain will keep temperatures down in both regions, which is good news after all the heat! Between this past morning and Sunday morning there could be over 6 inches of rainfall in West Tennessee and North Mississippi according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). Flash flooding issues may crop up in some of the heavier thunderstorms.
Now, to the two TV stations. The first TV station in question here is WBBJ-TV in Jackson, TN where I'll be at on Saturday and Sunday night doing weather. It's been nearly three months since I've been on air in West Tennessee so I'm happy to be coming back this weekend and next weekend too for the Saturday night shows! The second TV station in question is WAVE-TV in Louisville. Today I went in to meet with Kevin Harned and the gang at the station and came out a WAVE 3 Weather intern. This has been "in the works" for awhile but today it was made official and I'm extremely excited to be sharing this news! I'll be at WAVE a couple days a week until mid-August. My duties will be mostly web-based with social media, blogs, etc, but I'll also assist with any needed TV-related tasks. I'm so thankful to be able to intern at the station I grew up with and to work with such a great team of meteorologists!
Thursday, June 28, 2012
6/28 - 11:30am MDT - Waking Up in Nebraska
After storms in Northeast Colorado yesterday became contaminated by storms coming off the Front Range, we decided to head east to be ready for today's chase. After waking up in Ogallala, Nebraska this morning we're rested up for a relatively leisurely day without too much driving since we're already pretty much in our target area for the day. The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk out for Western Nebraska, Northeast Colorado, and Northwest Kansas today with a 5% severe wind risk.
The focus today will be a cold front that's slowly moving through the region today. Winds around this frontal boundary may shift out of the east a little bit and that's where we'll position ourselves since the best shear will be where that happens. Dew points will be in the 60's across Central Nebraska this afternoon with slightly lower readings to the west. These surface winds, while weak, and the moisture should be more than enough to get some storms going.
Winds aloft are a little less certain since they may change throughout the day. Early on this morning winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet) were almost westerly across the western half of Nebraska, but already we've seen a shift to the southwest. While not terribly strong, the winds up there could have just enough punch to get storms to become severe. Small embedded shortwaves within the flow may enhance these winds a bit in some areas too. By 6pm MDT tonight the RAP model (right) still has these winds out of the southwest aloft, so that's some good news. The thinking at this point is that the shear won't be high enough to keep storms from merging together and being clustered, but we'll see how that plays out.
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for constant updates during our chase!
The focus today will be a cold front that's slowly moving through the region today. Winds around this frontal boundary may shift out of the east a little bit and that's where we'll position ourselves since the best shear will be where that happens. Dew points will be in the 60's across Central Nebraska this afternoon with slightly lower readings to the west. These surface winds, while weak, and the moisture should be more than enough to get some storms going.
Winds aloft are a little less certain since they may change throughout the day. Early on this morning winds at 500 mb (18,000 feet) were almost westerly across the western half of Nebraska, but already we've seen a shift to the southwest. While not terribly strong, the winds up there could have just enough punch to get storms to become severe. Small embedded shortwaves within the flow may enhance these winds a bit in some areas too. By 6pm MDT tonight the RAP model (right) still has these winds out of the southwest aloft, so that's some good news. The thinking at this point is that the shear won't be high enough to keep storms from merging together and being clustered, but we'll see how that plays out.
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for constant updates during our chase!
Thursday, May 24, 2012
5/24 - 11:30am CDT - A Repositioning Day
Yep, there's a Moderate Risk for severe storms in parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa today according to the Storm Prediction Center. It's too bad because we simply can't chase there due to the amount of trees and vegetation along with a considerable distance from Oklahoma City where we need to be tomorrow night. Here's the plan then: We're going to drive south from Des Moines to Kansas City and then cut west in Kansas for this evening when we could see some overnight storms with lightning in that region.
Tomorrow still looks interesting to say the least. Right out front I need to say that this setup has a very high bust potential because of all the capping that will be in place. Warm temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and higher at 10,000 feet (700 mb) will act as this capping mechanism because it will inhibit warm air from rising buoyantly into the layers above for thunderstorm formation. With that said, this cap may weaken just enough for a couple of storms to fire up in Kansas tomorrow. They would likely be very isolated due to the capped environment, so that's definitely a plus here.
We all know by now that the models have not been handling moisture very well lately and tomorrow probably won't be any different. The NAM model has dew points of 65 degrees Fahrenheit and higher in Central Kansas at 4pm CDT. If this is overdone and we see dew points between 60 and 65 degrees it still wouldn't be too bad. An area of low pressure smack dab over the middle of Kansas should help bring some of this moisture in and also create a considerable amount of wind shear for rotating storms, especially near the warm front just south of the Nebraska border. Again, this is all if the cap actually breaks tomorrow. If it doesn't we'll be sweating it out in the sun as we watch cumulus cloud towers fail to rise high enough for storms. Tomorrow morning I'll post again with an update on this potential.
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates!
Tomorrow still looks interesting to say the least. Right out front I need to say that this setup has a very high bust potential because of all the capping that will be in place. Warm temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius and higher at 10,000 feet (700 mb) will act as this capping mechanism because it will inhibit warm air from rising buoyantly into the layers above for thunderstorm formation. With that said, this cap may weaken just enough for a couple of storms to fire up in Kansas tomorrow. They would likely be very isolated due to the capped environment, so that's definitely a plus here.
We all know by now that the models have not been handling moisture very well lately and tomorrow probably won't be any different. The NAM model has dew points of 65 degrees Fahrenheit and higher in Central Kansas at 4pm CDT. If this is overdone and we see dew points between 60 and 65 degrees it still wouldn't be too bad. An area of low pressure smack dab over the middle of Kansas should help bring some of this moisture in and also create a considerable amount of wind shear for rotating storms, especially near the warm front just south of the Nebraska border. Again, this is all if the cap actually breaks tomorrow. If it doesn't we'll be sweating it out in the sun as we watch cumulus cloud towers fail to rise high enough for storms. Tomorrow morning I'll post again with an update on this potential.
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates!
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
5/23 - 11:50am CDT - Nebraska or Colorado?
Today we're in the Cornhusker state of Nebraska in search of severe storms. Yesterday's chase in what ended up being extreme southern South Dakota was short-lived as storms that formed up that way south of Murdo, SD quickly dissipated due to a low amount of moisture and contamination of their inflow via a layer of clouds that formed to the south of them. The storm we chased had a nice structure for a few minutes and even put down a bit of a wall cloud before it fell apart.
A cold front situated across the center of Nebraska will be the focus for storms this afternoon. The band of clouds on the satellite image is roughly where the front is located right now and it will slowly sag south and east today. A low forming over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas should help back the winds out of the east this afternoon here in portions of Nebraska and that will increase low-level wind shear needed for rotating storms as that happens. This low will also create easterly winds in Northeast Colorado, so that may be a secondary target area for today.
We're already seeing some easterly winds beginning to set up in Nebraska this morning and we'll be watching where those develop this afternoon as well. Dew points are still quite low this morning in the upper 50's, but more moisture should move in this afternoon and bump up dew points to around 60 or higher. This is still a bit low for good storms, but we'll probably be better off than we were yesterday in this regard. Dew points in Northeast Colorado won't have to be as high for good storms thanks to the elevation there.
The environment today is rather "capped" as we say, meaning there's a warm layer of air above the surface layer that's prohibiting storm development. As surface heating gets going later this afternoon and into this evening there should be enough energy for updrafts to break through this cap and form storms. This means that storms should be fairly isolated at least starting out, which is a good thing since isolated storms are more organized, more likely to produce a tornado, and easier to chase. Some of these isolated storms may become supercells, and that's exactly the thing we're after since they may produce a few tornadoes today. Storms may condense into one or more lines of storms later this evening as the cap quickly erodes after dark. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Colorado to Minnesota and that includes a couple areas of 5% tornado risk. There's a chance we may bug out on our plans for Nebraska and move to the secondary area you see there in Northeast Colorado, so stay tuned.
Follow up-to-the-minute updates today on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!
A cold front situated across the center of Nebraska will be the focus for storms this afternoon. The band of clouds on the satellite image is roughly where the front is located right now and it will slowly sag south and east today. A low forming over Eastern Colorado/Western Kansas should help back the winds out of the east this afternoon here in portions of Nebraska and that will increase low-level wind shear needed for rotating storms as that happens. This low will also create easterly winds in Northeast Colorado, so that may be a secondary target area for today.
We're already seeing some easterly winds beginning to set up in Nebraska this morning and we'll be watching where those develop this afternoon as well. Dew points are still quite low this morning in the upper 50's, but more moisture should move in this afternoon and bump up dew points to around 60 or higher. This is still a bit low for good storms, but we'll probably be better off than we were yesterday in this regard. Dew points in Northeast Colorado won't have to be as high for good storms thanks to the elevation there.
The environment today is rather "capped" as we say, meaning there's a warm layer of air above the surface layer that's prohibiting storm development. As surface heating gets going later this afternoon and into this evening there should be enough energy for updrafts to break through this cap and form storms. This means that storms should be fairly isolated at least starting out, which is a good thing since isolated storms are more organized, more likely to produce a tornado, and easier to chase. Some of these isolated storms may become supercells, and that's exactly the thing we're after since they may produce a few tornadoes today. Storms may condense into one or more lines of storms later this evening as the cap quickly erodes after dark. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk for severe weather today from Colorado to Minnesota and that includes a couple areas of 5% tornado risk. There's a chance we may bug out on our plans for Nebraska and move to the secondary area you see there in Northeast Colorado, so stay tuned.
Follow up-to-the-minute updates today on my Twitter and Facebook accounts!
Saturday, May 19, 2012
5/19 - 11:30pm CDT - New Tour Group, Chase Tomorrow
This morning Tour 2's guests departed and this evening we just finished up orientation and dinner with the guests on Tour 3. This past week we went 2,402 miles (3,866 kilometers) across Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Kansas. Everybody had a great time as we traveled from the Mexican border near Big Bend National Park in Texas all the way to Denver even though storms may not have been available to chase every day.
A rash of tornadoes southwest of Wichita, Kansas near Harper has us a little down this evening since they happened during our day to switch up tour groups in Oklahoma City. Unfortunately there was damage reported with these tornadoes, which seemed to be all rope-like based on the photos being posted via social media. The rope structure of these makes sense given the low moisture in the area which means that cloud bases were high. For tomorrow the setup does not look as favorable for tornadoes given the still marginal amount of moisture in the region and weaker upper-level winds, but our sights are set on Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle region of Texas as the cold front that triggered today's madness continues southward.
The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk with a 5% severe probability for the area in question tomorrow. They're not real optimistic about severe storms based on the weak upper-level and surface winds, but we'll see how that develops tomorrow. The one thing we have going is that the direction of the winds at the surface (mostly easterly) will contrast well with the mostly westerly winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) for some directional wind shear. Good storms may be hard to come by on Monday, but as the trough that I mentioned in the previous blog post begins to move in I think our prospects will improve during the week.
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest on our chase!
A rash of tornadoes southwest of Wichita, Kansas near Harper has us a little down this evening since they happened during our day to switch up tour groups in Oklahoma City. Unfortunately there was damage reported with these tornadoes, which seemed to be all rope-like based on the photos being posted via social media. The rope structure of these makes sense given the low moisture in the area which means that cloud bases were high. For tomorrow the setup does not look as favorable for tornadoes given the still marginal amount of moisture in the region and weaker upper-level winds, but our sights are set on Western Oklahoma and the Panhandle region of Texas as the cold front that triggered today's madness continues southward.
The Storm Prediction Center has a general thunderstorm risk with a 5% severe probability for the area in question tomorrow. They're not real optimistic about severe storms based on the weak upper-level and surface winds, but we'll see how that develops tomorrow. The one thing we have going is that the direction of the winds at the surface (mostly easterly) will contrast well with the mostly westerly winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) for some directional wind shear. Good storms may be hard to come by on Monday, but as the trough that I mentioned in the previous blog post begins to move in I think our prospects will improve during the week.Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest on our chase!
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
5/16 - 10:45am CDT - To Colorado We Go!
After spending quite a bit of time in Texas over the past few days we are on our way north to Colorado this morning. We're going to try to chase some storms that may form in the upslope flow of the Front Range of the Rockies. Here's how these form: Moist air flows from east to west up the gentle slope of the mountains during the afternoon. This moist air when lifted by the terrain condenses because it's moving into cooler air aloft. As more air rises up this gentle east-west slope, it continues to condense to form clouds and eventually thunderstorms. Since the mountains act as a constant source of lift, these storms can be pretty reliable as long as other ingredients are in place.
Here's the issue for today though... Moisture is going to be hard to come by today because the last major system to roll through the Plains last week pushed all the moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of it will be returning to the region today though and we can already see that happening on the current surface map. Dew points right now are in the 30's with a couple 40 degree plus readings across the eastern part of Colorado where these storms will form. In a perfect world you'd want easterly winds to be blowing in better moisture and to create better low-level shear, but this morning we're dealing with southeasterly winds. The good part is that it doesn't take as much moisture to generate these storms as it does in lower elevations. Generally you want dew points to be above 40 degrees in this region, and that's something we may struggle to get today if the computer models are correct.
Putting all of this together with some weak southwest winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) there is a chance for some storms in Eastern Colorado today. With potentially weak moisture return the setup for anything severe looks very "iffy" at this point and the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern Colorado under only a general thunderstorm risk because of this. We'll keep an eye on the surface observations this morning and afternoon to determine whether moisture will return as needed.
Last night I had a good internet connection at our hotel and was able to upload some video. Check out my footage of our encounter with golf ball size hail and flash flooding east of Lajitas, Texas on Monday:
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase today!
Here's the issue for today though... Moisture is going to be hard to come by today because the last major system to roll through the Plains last week pushed all the moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of it will be returning to the region today though and we can already see that happening on the current surface map. Dew points right now are in the 30's with a couple 40 degree plus readings across the eastern part of Colorado where these storms will form. In a perfect world you'd want easterly winds to be blowing in better moisture and to create better low-level shear, but this morning we're dealing with southeasterly winds. The good part is that it doesn't take as much moisture to generate these storms as it does in lower elevations. Generally you want dew points to be above 40 degrees in this region, and that's something we may struggle to get today if the computer models are correct.
Putting all of this together with some weak southwest winds at 500 mb (18,000 ft) there is a chance for some storms in Eastern Colorado today. With potentially weak moisture return the setup for anything severe looks very "iffy" at this point and the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of Eastern Colorado under only a general thunderstorm risk because of this. We'll keep an eye on the surface observations this morning and afternoon to determine whether moisture will return as needed.
Last night I had a good internet connection at our hotel and was able to upload some video. Check out my footage of our encounter with golf ball size hail and flash flooding east of Lajitas, Texas on Monday:
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for updates on our chase today!
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Monday, May 7, 2012
5/7 - 10am CDT - On Our Way to South Texas
The same cold front that we targeted yesterday in Kansas and Oklahoma is on the move southward and so are we. We're on our way to South Texas this morning to meet up with where the front, the dry line (boundary between moist air to the east and dry air to the west), surface heating, easterly winds, and moisture all meet up. Storms should fire along the front and/or dry line this afternoon as instability builds. You'll see in the image to the right that there's a sliver of high dew points that will develop in Southwest Texas this afternoon that will be our focus as the cold front moves south.
Due to the threat of severe storms this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for portions of South Texas with a 2% tornado risk (pictured left). Some of these storms will have large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk, like yesterday, looks fairly low due to weak winds aloft, but the directional wind shear will help out as well as high instability. There may just be enough ingredients to spawn one or two tornadoes today down there, so we'll cross our fingers and keep driving!
As usual, I'll be posting up-to-the-minute storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today.
Due to the threat of severe storms this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for portions of South Texas with a 2% tornado risk (pictured left). Some of these storms will have large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk, like yesterday, looks fairly low due to weak winds aloft, but the directional wind shear will help out as well as high instability. There may just be enough ingredients to spawn one or two tornadoes today down there, so we'll cross our fingers and keep driving!
As usual, I'll be posting up-to-the-minute storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
5/6 - 11:45pm CDT - Bust Today in Kansas, Texas Tomorrow
A layer of cirrus clouds really but a damper on our chase today as they blocked storms from forming along a cold front that was in the process of moving through Central Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma. The cold front also accelerated, which didn't help since areas that were prime for development had their warm, moist air swept out quickly. Storms did develop in Northeast Kansas today, but the potential up there for the best isolated storms was considerably less than where we were based on the data we use. Those storms were clustered together as expected, but a couple were able to get out by themselves for a bit and get a little rotation (one dropped a funnel cloud that possibly touched down briefly near Kansas City). At the end of the afternoon we ended up getting on I-35 and making our way south toward Texas where we want to be for tomorrow. Check out the nice sunset in the image on the right from Oklahoma City!
Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest tomorrow!
Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!
Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest tomorrow!
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Saturday, May 5, 2012
5/5 - 11:55pm CDT - Interesting Setup Tomorrow
A cold front moving through the Plains tomorrow will provide the focus for severe storm development during our first chase day. This front has really slowed down on the computer models over the past day or so and this is good because it will allow the warm sector environment to to east of it to become richer with potential due to solar heating. Something the NAM model has been consistently picking up on is the development of a small, sharp shortwave moving through Oklahoma during the afternoon. This shortwave generates a secondary low on that model that creates some pretty good directional shear over Central Oklahoma. Couple that with some incredible instability due to the high moisture in the area and you've got an interesting little severe weather setup to chase. This setup has shifted around from North Texas to East Kansas over the past few model runs, but it seems to be stabilizing over Central Oklahoma for now. The tornado risk tomorrow originally looked very slim due to the lack of good wind speed aloft, but now it is becoming hard to ignore the good directional shear and the great instability. So while it still isn't a high tornado risk, I would venture to say that one or two may touch down if indeed this area of good directional shear sets up.
I'll have an update tomorrow morning on how the setup has evolved and where we'll be targeting. Follow my up-to-the-minute updates on Twitter and Facebook.
I'll have an update tomorrow morning on how the setup has evolved and where we'll be targeting. Follow my up-to-the-minute updates on Twitter and Facebook.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
1/12 - 6pm - Another Cold/Warm Roller Coaster
Cold air is filtering into West Tennessee and North Mississippi as a cold front that came through earlier this morning continues to move east. Snow showers fell as far south as portions of North Mississippi this afternoon, but the bigger snows from this system were confined further north into Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana and the Great Lakes. Check out this picture below that my sister sent me of the scene this afternoon at my house in Louisville, KY: Even though only an inch or so will be on the ground by later tonight, the gusty winds of 20 mph+ could create blowing snow conditions with low visibility.
You'll feel the cold air behind the front tonight for sure if you're out and about. By early tomorrow morning temperatures across West Tennessee could be in the lower 20's and upper teens while North Mississippi will bottom out in the lower 20's. Highs tomorrow will range from the upper 30's in West Tennessee to the mid 40's further south in Mississippi.
That's about it for the cold though. Not long at all, right? Warmer weather will begin moving in for the weekend and early next week a ridge builds into the eastern half of the nation. Temperatures will likely get near 60 early next week before another system brings rain on Monday night and cooler temperatures for the middle of next week. The roller coaster continues!
Labels:
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Saturday, October 22, 2011
10/22 - 12:30pm - Warmer Temperatures in West TN, then Snow?
Jackson, TN bottomed out at 32 degrees this morning, which is two degrees warmer than our low temperature yesterday but still very chilly. We'll warm things up gradually around West Tennessee this weekend with 60's for highs today, 70's for both tomorrow and Monday, and 80's for Tuesday. What a warm-up! A cold front coming through on Wednesday night will generate some thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday, possibly into Friday as well. This system has slowed down on the computer models a little bit, but I think we should have all the rain out of here by Friday evening. It will be MUCH colder behind this front and as NWS Memphis points out, there's even a hint of some hypothetical snow on the computer models with this system:
I'll be on the 6pm and 10pm shows this evening (which will likely air a few minutes later than their assigned times due to football on TV), so be sure to tune in and check out the latest changes in your forecast!
IN FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVINGHonestly I don't think much if any snow will make it to the ground on Thursday night, but it could be close as some very cold air filters in behind that cold front. Check out some video from this morning's edition of Good Morning West Tennessee on WBBJ below:
ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SUB 540 DAM. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THEN IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX WITH THE RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE STILL IN LATE OCTOBER.
I'll be on the 6pm and 10pm shows this evening (which will likely air a few minutes later than their assigned times due to football on TV), so be sure to tune in and check out the latest changes in your forecast!
Saturday, October 15, 2011
10/15 - 3pm - It's Blast Furnace Time in West Tennessee!
Are you ready for a big warm-up? As high pressure shoves eastward we'll be seeing southerly winds bringing in some very warm air this weekend. This will push highs into the middle 80's for Sunday and Monday, which is almost record-breaking for West Tennessee. A cold front will bring an end to the warm temperatures on Monday night and storms appear likely. Some of these could be on the strong side, but we're not expecting a severe weather outbreak at this point. Temperatures behind this front may struggle to reach 60 on Wednesday, but we'll warm into the upper 60's by the end of the workweek. Check out my video below for a full forecast!
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