This certainly seems feasible after seeing tons of rain on GFS model from today all the way to Saturday morning (I'll get to Derby weather in a moment).Another rainy day is on the way for tomorrow with a high in the lower 70's. The Pegasus Parade on Thursday looks fairly wet right now, but there is the potential for a bit of clearing in the afternoon that could send temperatures into the upper 70's.
Let's talk Oaks weather... which doesn't look too good. The SPC just issued this severe weather outlook pertaining to Friday (Oaks):
Since there is a fairly strong cold front coming through early Saturday, conditions look at least marginally good for a severe weather situation around here. The highest instability will stay to our west it looks like, but moisture flow into the area will be quite ample to support strong to severe storms. I'll have more on this as we get closer, but nobody wants severe weather during Oaks!
Derby is another wild card at this point because it depends on what time this cold front passes in the morning. If the front passes through during the early morning hours as the GFS indicates, we should have clearing skies by the time the horses are ready to go. If this front delays, we could have a rainy mess at Churchill Downs. I'm leaning toward the no-rain solution for Derby right now, but everyone needds to keep in mind that this is a very tricky forecast situation.
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