5/7 - 10am CDT - On Our Way to South Texas

The same cold front that we targeted yesterday in Kansas and Oklahoma is on the move southward and so are we. We're on our way to South Texas this morning to meet up with where the front, the dry line (boundary between moist air to the east and dry air to the west), surface heating, easterly winds, and moisture all meet up. Storms should fire along the front and/or dry line this afternoon as instability builds. You'll see in the image to the right that there's a sliver of high dew points that will develop in Southwest Texas this afternoon that will be our focus as the cold front moves south.

Due to the threat of severe storms this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk area for portions of South Texas with a 2% tornado risk (pictured left). Some of these storms will have large hail and damaging winds. The tornado risk, like yesterday, looks fairly low due to weak winds aloft, but the directional wind shear will help out as well as high instability. There may just be enough ingredients to spawn one or two tornadoes today down there, so we'll cross our fingers and keep driving!

As usual, I'll be posting up-to-the-minute storm chasing updates on my Twitter and Facebook accounts today.

5/6 - 11:45pm CDT - Bust Today in Kansas, Texas Tomorrow

A layer of cirrus clouds really but a damper on our chase today as they blocked storms from forming along a cold front that was in the process of moving through Central Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma. The cold front also accelerated, which didn't help since areas that were prime for development had their warm, moist air swept out quickly. Storms did develop in Northeast Kansas today, but the potential up there for the best isolated storms was considerably less than where we were based on the data we use. Those storms were clustered together as expected, but a couple were able to get out by themselves for a bit and get a little rotation (one dropped a funnel cloud that possibly touched down briefly near Kansas City). At the end of the afternoon we ended up getting on I-35 and making our way south toward Texas where we want to be for tomorrow. Check out the nice sunset in the image on the right from Oklahoma City!

Tomorrow we'll likely be somewhere around South Central Texas, where the dry line will be the focus for storm development. Moisture will be plentiful there since the front we chased near today will not have swept through Texas yet. The dry line will not be terribly sharp in the area in question tomorrow according to the 0z NAM model. We really want that sharp dry line so that it provides good lift for storm development, but we'll see how it pans out tomorrow morning. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook has a Slight Risk for areas east of Fort Stockton tomorrow, but my hunch is that it may move east a little bit in their next outlook based on some of the data I've seen this evening. We'll look at the data tomorrow morning and I'll post on here once we're on the road!

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook for the latest tomorrow!

5/20 - 11:20am CDT - Off to Western Oklahoma

After a not-as-good-as-we-thought-it-would-be day yesterday, we're off to Western Oklahoma in search of storms that will likely fire this afternoon behind an already ongoing line of storms in the central and eastern part of the state. Upper-level winds should be supportive of storms that could fire this afternoon, but we're still waiting for the atmosphere to recover behind the ongoing storms this morning. Short-range models indicate ample moisture with decent instability in the western part of the state. The dry line, which you can easily see in the dew point forecast image below, will provide a focus for storm formation as outflow boundaries from this morning's storms interact with it. This interaction will create lift to get storms going this afternoon. Temperatures aloft will still be a little cool for really good isolated storm development, but we'll take what we can get.


Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates this afternoon!

5/11 - 9:45am CDT - Southern Kansas Today

Our prospects for storm chasing this afternoon in Southern Kansas are not as good as previously thought. A line of storms that formed last night in the Texas Panhandle is drifting through west Kansas and Oklahoma right now. This is never a good thing because those morning storms can easily inhibit instability and make the potential for discreet super cells lower. BUT, once these storms depart the area and we get the sunshine back we'll begin to rebuild the atmospheric potential for severe weather this afternoon. The sooner the storms leave, the better things will be this afternoon. Because of these developments, the Storm Prediction Center has downgraded their Moderate Risk from last night to a Slight Risk this morning.


We'll see how it all goes today. East surface winds, a dryline push, and good wind speeds at 500mb (but a bit too southerly for comfort) are all in our favor for today despite the morning storms. I'm confident that severe weather will happen today in Kansas/Oklahoma, but the setup has become much more complex and the potential for good discreet supercells has decreased.

Storms will most likely start after 2pm CDT this afternoon. Be sure to follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest updates!

5/6 - 4:30pm - The Packing Has Begun!

My suitcase is getting packed and tomorrow is the day! I'm leaving for Amarillo, TX tomorrow morning from Louisville on what should be a perfect day for travel across much of the US. The Kentucky Derby is tomorrow afternoon, so the airport experience here in Louisville may be a little more festive than usual! As usual, we'll have orientation tomorrow evening in Amarillo for the new storm chasing tour guests who will be with us next week. Speaking of next week, things are looking rather active...

The post from yesterday about the overall pattern setup still applies for next week, but we're starting to get a few more details today about what will happen. Sunday could be an active day across North Texas and West Oklahoma as this trough begins digging into the Plains and the dryline pushes east, but there are concerns about capping (a warm layer of air above the surface that inhibits thunderstorm development). The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) thinks that this capping shouldn't be a big deal due to moisture and hot temperatures near the surface, but we'll see. Here's their day 3 (Sunday) severe weather outlook with a Slight Risk in West Oklahoma and Texas near Wichita Falls:


Capping is always one of those things that you have to wait until the morning of the chase to figure out because it is so finicky on the computer models. Even then, a slight change in conditions can keep the capping in place and limit storm development to nothing. This could be even more of an issue on Monday. The good news is that a partially capped environment can limit the growth of numerous small supercell storms so that only a few stronger ones are able to push through the cap and develop discreetly. These strong supercells are the ones we want to chase since they have the greatest potential of producing tornadoes.

The SPC has highlighted risk areas for Tuesday and Wednesday in the Plains as well, but we'll get to the specifics on those days once we take care of the dryline severe weather setup on Sunday and possibly Monday:


I'll post here tomorrow as soon as I get to our hotel in Amarillo to give you an update! Remember that you can follow me on Facebook and Twitter for the latest storm chasing updates from the road!

5/19 - 11:15am CDT - Another Oklahoma Outbreak

Things are really lining up this morning for another severe weather outbreak in Oklahoma. The dry line will push east to near Lawton, Oklahoma this afternoon, providing a good source of lift this afternoon. CAPE values (instability) will be over 4000 J/kg in some areas and shear will be well over 40 kt. As low pressure moves into the state, winds should back to the east somewhere between Central and South Oklahoma depending on exact movement. Dew points near or over 70 will be markedly better than yesterday's setup in Texas as well. Fast southwest flow at 500mb and diffluence at that level will also help get uplift going. The best news I've seen this morning is that the storm motion is still around 20-25 kt, meaning the storms will be moving slow enough for us to chase them. Last week in Oklahoma we had storms that were moving 40-50 kt and we just could not stay up with them. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk and a 15% hatched tornado risk for most of Oklahoma, which is the best probability we've seen this week.

Don't forget to view our LIVE video stream this afternoon at http://stormchasertv.com when storms break out. To get updates on our chase and to find out when we're streaming, follow me on Twitter or Facebook.

UPDATE 12pm CDT: The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH Risk of severe weather for portions of Oklahoma including Oklahoma City.