1/29 - 1pm - Lots 'O Laughs at WBBJ

It was a fun morning at WBBJ and the forecast was the same way. Lots of sunshine and warm temperatures on the way this afternoon in Jackson, but rain and possibly even a wintry mix are on the way for next week along with cooler temperatures. Check out the video below (go to 4:50 for the giggle-fest that ensued when David threw a whole stack of loose papers off of the news desk):

1/26 - 4pm - MSU Forecast Video

Looks like this weekend is going to be one of reprieve after starting out with clouds and rain across North Mississippi. Expect temperatures near 60 by the weekend and no rain chances until early next week. Check out my video below for more details:

1/22 - 2pm - WBBJ Video

After a clear day today, a mix of rain and snow is in the forecast for West Tennessee as the workweek commences. I'm not expecting any significant snow accumulations at this point, but areas in Northwest Tennessee will likely see more snow mixing in with rain than southern parts of the state. We should be cleared out by Wednesday and temperatures will climb back into the 40's by Friday. Check out my forecast from ABC 7's Good Morning West Tennessee below:

1/18 - 6pm - MSU Weather Forecast Video

After we get rid of the rain tonight things should clear out for a cool, sunny day tomorrow around North Mississippi. Expect more rain on Thursday with a chance for some light snow that evening into Friday morning. I'm not seeing any indications that point to a decent accumulating snow, so a dusting to 1/2" will probably be the maximum amount you'll see on Friday morning if any at all. Things should gradually warm back up by the weekend! Check out today's forecast video below:

1/16 - 10:30am - WBBJ Video

Quite a bit of variation in temperature will happen this week in West Tennessee with multiple cold fronts bringing in precipitation. Monday and Tuesday should be the big rain days this week, but there's also a chance on Thursday associated with one of the aforementioned cold fronts. Temperatures after the passage of this front on Friday and Saturday will dip into the 30's for highs, so be ready for some more cold weather! Check out the video below for more details:

1/10 - 5pm - Winter Storm Wrap-Up

After a few hours of sleet and snow, Starkville, MS finally switched over to all snow just after 8pm last night and around three inches of accumulation occurred. It was less than many expected because of the slow switch-over from sleet/freezing rain to snow, but nevertheless it was a significant storm. Areas near Corinth and Tupelo, MS received the most snow of anyone in the state, with ten inches in some places. Back in Starkville, temperatures have now warmed up to 34 in town, so the roads and sidewalks have melted. With the roads still wet and temperatures going below freezing tonight, there's a pretty good chance that ice could develop out there. Regardless of where you are across North Mississippi, West Tennessee, and Alabama, be very careful when traveling overnight and tomorrow morning.

Check out this video I put together that chronicles the storm at Mississippi State University from beginning to end:

1/7 - 8:15pm - Big Changes to Southern Winter Storm!

A day makes quite a difference when it comes to winter storm forecasting, and boy do we have some changes in the forecast to talk about. The major US-based computer models, the GFS and NAM, have both trended colder and wetter in today's runs compared to yesterday. Instead of talking about ice problems in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, we're now talking heavy snow. Jackson, TN has also seen a bump in snow totals on the models, with 2-4" now possible in the Hub City.

Jackson, TN
While no Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Jackson area, snow totals could reach 2-4" by Monday midday. While this won't be a very heavy snowfall, it'll certainly cause travel problems across West Tennessee. The snow totals will increase as you head toward the Mississippi border, where up to 5 inches is possible. As you'll see in the graphic to the right, Winter Storm Watches begin with the Tennessee counties bordering Mississippi and go all the way south to just north of the Gulf Coast. I saw earlier this evening that brine has been applied to many roads across West Tennessee and that's certainly good news for travelers in the region on Sunday into Monday. I'll have the latest forecast for Jackson and West Tennessee tomorrow morning at 6am on WBBJ ABC 7's Good Morning West Tennessee!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Memphis has to say about this system:

GIVEN ALL OF THIS...IT SEEMS BEST TO CONTINUE WITH AROUND AN INCH NORTH OF JONESBORO TO PARIS...3 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...AND 5 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DESPITE SOME HIGHER QPF SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO...WILL NOT PUSH TOTALS ABOVE 8 INCHES FOR NOW. LATER FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THESE TOTALS AS HOPEFULLY BETTER MODEL OUTPUT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

Starkville, MS
The shift from a couple inches of snow with ice accumulations to heavy snow accumulations of 4-8" in Starkville by Monday morning on the computer models has been remarkable today. Colder temperatures in the mid levels of the atmosphere and increased precipitation totals have really bumped up the snow totals across the Golden Triangle and I think this is a much better solution than an ice storm in the area. Unfortunately, that risk has shifted to Central Mississippi just south of Macon, MS and power outages and tree damage could be an issue down there. The most ambitious computer model today has been the 18z NAM run (on left), which gave Starkville over 9 inches of snow. I don't think we'll get quite that much snow, but the National Weather Service's 4-8" forecast looks on-par with what I'm thinking at this point. This will be the largest snow storm in quite a few years should this pan out, so get ready for some significant travel issues in North and Central Mississippi on Sunday night and Monday. I'll keep watch on the latest model runs and post tomorrow with the latest updates!

Here's what the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS says about Mississippi's winter weather chances:

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND SREF OUTPUT GENERALLY SUPPORT PRIMARILY SNOW...PERHAPS MIXED AT TIMES WITH SLEET AND A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...ALONG AND N OF A BASTROP LA TO MACON LINE. GIVEN THE FORECAST QPF...THIS WOULD RESULT IN ABOUT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA. ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR...A FULL WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. DEPENDING ON WHAT THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE ENDS UP BEING...THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET...OR A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF GLAZE. ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...PRECIP LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BEGIN AS SNOW/SLEET THEN TRANSITION TO A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN WITH SOME WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL BE UNDER A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM SUN TO 6 AM MON PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

Don't forget that you can follow my up-to-the minute weather updates on my Facebook and Twitter accounts.

1/6 - 11pm - Winter Storm in the South This Weekend?

You've probably heard it by now, but it bears stating again: A winter storm is going to impact the South this weekend. Even though we're less than four days away from the event, details are still relatively sketchy because of computer model inconsistencies. In this post I'll focus on Starkville, MS and Jackson, TN, two areas that are less than a couple hundred miles apart but could see wildly different winter weather scenarios.


Jackson, TN
The winter storm this weekend will be an all-snow event for Jackson and all of West Tennessee. The most current runs of the GFS model are indicating around two inches of snow accumulation by Monday afternoon in the region. The NAM model only goes out to 84 hours, so only accumulations through Monday morning were output on the 0z run, which stands now at around two inches as well. Since precipitation amounts will increase as you go southward and the exact track of this storm hasn't been determined, there's definitely room for more snow accumulation than what is on the current batch of computer models.


Starkville, MS/Mississippi State University

The forecast for Starkville is exponentially more difficult than areas to our north because the Golden Triangle could very well be the battleground between snow, freezing rain, and rain. The 18z GFS model puts a couple inches of snow on the ground here, but the bigger story is the amount of freezing rain that could accumulate. The graphic to the right is the accumulated freezing rain output from the GFS, which shows nearly a half inch of ice accumulation in Starkville by Monday morning. Just a couple counties to our north, snow accumulations could top four inches and ice may not be as much of an issue. Earlier runs of the GFS showed more snow for Starkville with ice becoming more of a problem just to our south. That's just one model though. The NAM, which as I said before does not cover the whole event period yet, seemed to go toward a warmer solution on the 0z run with a bit of snow late Sunday night and plain rain in town on Monday morning (left image). I'd give the NAM a few runs to get things sorted out because lately it seems to have had problems with storms that occur near the very end of it's forecast period. Areas near Tupelo could be the bulls-eye for heavy snow, so I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports of amounts over five inches up there early on Monday.

Bottom line: Significant amounts of snow/sleet and freezing rain are possible in Starkville by Monday morning and we'll need to fine-tune the forecast to figure out which mode of precipitation will be more dominant. Any slight track changes or differences in the strength of the low that will pass to our south will determine what kind of frozen precipitation falls where. The good news is that I think temperatures during the day on Monday will get above freezing, so the mess on the roads during the morning should get better throughout the afternoon.

If you're near Jackson, TN this weekend, be sure to tune in to ABC 7 on Saturday morning at 6am for my latest snow forecast. Should be an interesting few days ahead!

1/2 - 12:45am - Happy New Year!

Hope that everyone had an exceptional New Year's Day and that it was a nice kickoff to a great year ahead! I've been away from the blog for awhile to enjoy the holidays and take a vacation to the Caribbean, but it's just about time for things to get back to normal. I'll be heading back to Starkville, MS on Monday to start the spring semester at Mississippi State and I'll be back at work next Saturday morning at WBBJ in Jackson. From the excitement of the multiple early Ohio Valley winter storms to getting my wisdom teeth taken out (well, maybe not that), it's been a great winter break in Louisville.

Many of you I'm sure have been hearing about the aftermath from the worst severe weather outbreak on New Year's Day and Eve in recorded history. Seven fatalities have occurred due to tornadoes and strong winds that scraped across the Midwest and South, affecting states like Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The state of Mississippi was especially hard hit as a few significant tornadoes touched down in Jackson and portions of Central Mississippi. Three tornadoes have been confirmed in Mississippi so far, including one that crossed onto the property of Jackson International Airport. The National Weather Service is still conducting damage surveys, so this list of confirmed tornadoes will likely grow. Check out the details from the surveys of the three confirmed Mississippi tornadoes on the NWS Jackson website. (Picture on right is a strong velocity couplet indicating intense rotation on radar near Jackson, MS on Friday)

The weather looks pretty calm for the next few days as high pressure regains control of things in the Southeast. There could be some precipitation in the region on Wednesday and Thursday, but chances aren't looking good at this point. If two areas of low pressure phase with one another as they pass over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, expect light snow in Indiana and rain all the way from the Ohio River to the Mississippi Gulf Coast. If they remain separate systems, any precipitation would likely stay suppressed in South Mississippi. Right now I think they will remain separate systems, meaning Kentucky and Tennessee will remain dry as we head through the middle part of the week. Regardless of whether these lows phase or not, light snow will be possible in Indiana and Kentucky next weekend as the low in the Great Lakes moves east and spreads down areas of light snowfall from the north.

Temperatures will be on their way back below normal after next weekend across much of the country and we'll have to watch for snow chances in Kentucky, Tennessee, and maybe even Mississippi/Alabama. We'll certainly have the cold air in place, but will the storms cooperate? That's the fun of meteorology!