After many weeks of calm weather, we're starting to encounter signs that it could change significantly. Oaks looks pretty good right now compared to yesterday's forecast, so I think we'll squeeze out a little drizzle or light rain possibly during or after Oaks. That night, Derby Eve, is the problem. The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe weather for Friday night, with up to 1 inch of rain possible as well. While the risk isn't too bad at the moment, the rain factor is huge.
The track at Churchill Downs is going to be a mess Saturday morning and all throughout the afternoon if the sun doesn't come out to dry it. I'm betting (pun intended) that track conditions will be listed as muddy or sloppy before the Derby. As I said yesterday, you might want to factor that in to your wagers on Saturday.
Until Friday, calm and warm weather will prevail. Low temperatures will hold in the 50's and 60's too, which is a massive improvement over this morning's 30's and 40's around the area.
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