Here's the situation. There's a nasty squall line getting fired up along the Mississippi River right now heading NE at about... oh, say... 70MPH!!! There is a tornado WATCH out for that corridor, but most of the tornadoes are on the Iowa part of the line. It's interesting because there are really two smaller lines right now, only miles apart. It seems as if they're canceling each other out in terms of energy, but once one dissipates then we're off to the races. I think that the southern part of the line is getting ready to hit the most unstable part of the country in just a couple hours. That ought to fire the storms up.
Another component is the tornadic activity in Iowa I mentioned. These storms are heading north pretty quickly, so I think those cells will die off pretty soon as they hit cooler, more stable air. Once that occurs, it is possible that the moisture feed could open up for our storms to use. Again, this is what is supposed to happen, not what actually will in most cases.
The SPC didn't issue a HIGH risk like many thought they would today. It seems that cloud cover ahead of the line of storms limited their punch. What affect the earlier cloud cover out west would have on our severe potential is not known.
If all goes according to plan, storms should roll in here just after midnight well within severe limits. Wind damage will be the primary problem, but a couple tornadoes aren't out of the question. Keep your weather radios on alert mode folks.
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