7/27 - 9:30am - Hurricanes, Hail, Wind... Uh oh...

I didn't mention this yesterday but it needs mentioning today. On two model runs of the GFS yesterday, a hurricane showed up. It was shown as hitting in between the S. and N. Carolina coasts and being pretty strong. I didn't mention it because I thought that it would probably not show up in later model runs. I've seen the GFS be so finicky before that I figured it was an anomaly and it was also two weeks out.

It showed up on the 0z run this morning again:



This is not to cause alarm, but it is to provide awareness that things are beginning to rev up in the Atlantic. This is still two weeks out and the final solution (if a hurricane even manifests) will probably be way different. The storms that could make this sucker are in western Africa right now and getting ready to exit out to sea. Once these storms go out into the ocean we'll pretty much know if they will form a hurricane or not. Another solution to this hurricane on the 0z run yesterday was just for it to spin harmlessly out to sea. But after seeing two model runs place this thing in the exact same place two weeks out, I'm a little concerned. I read that the GFS predicted hurricane Ernesto back in '03 two weeks out. It was also accurate on the placement of the storm too. So, keep a watch on the tropics.

How about those storms in here this morning? Those were some boomers! Nothing was severe luckily, but we did pick up .3" of rain. Today we could see some severe storms though. The SLIGHT risk for severe weather from yesterday's outlook is unchanged for today. I think the only things we'll have to worry about are hail and wind. Once that's done, should be smooth sailing here for a little while.