7/26 - 2:20pm - Quite a Subversion...

Just yesterday I was on here rattling on about our severe chances for Saturday afternoon. Today, the SPC erased any chance of severe weather for this time period. Did I get transferred to an alternate universe last night? It seems as if the SPC was really banking on this outbreak and then POOF, its gone. I understand why though...

The GFS killed off the chance for severe weather in the previous couple runs. I think that this chance we had before was dependent on this upper level low doing precisely the right thing at precisely the right time. Since this low is finicky, I think it probably shifted course or speed a little bit and completely wiped out our severe chances for Saturday afternoon. Good news to hear on that end!

Now, there is a SLIGHT risk for severe weather in here for tomorrow, based on the same reasoning as why the Saturday afternoon risk would have occurred. This creped up on me because I was focusing on the Saturday issue, which was advertised as a more prevalent system than this one tomorrow. So now that we're focused on tomorrow, here are the stats:



We're in a 15% zone, which is the low end of a SLIGHT risk (30% being the high one). This will hit late Friday night into early Saturday morning. In effect, there is still a risk for severe weather for Saturday, but its just in the wee hours of the morning instead of the afternoon now. The GFS and NAM want to take the line of thunderstorms a little north of here, but again I don't trust the GFS or NAM for an exact solution to anything, just guidance. So we'll see what happens!