Some areas of Louisville have been left out by our recent scattered rain systems. At my house, we got nearly an inch of rain. We were lucky though, some didn't get nearly that much.
I said in my video forecast that I was slapping a 30% chance of rain on Thursday. This was done because I thought the GFS was being delusional about the amount of rain it was showing. Well, I'm now ready to side with it.
Yesterday, as I looked at the NWS and other agencies' forecasts and then looked at the GFS, things weren't adding up. It seemed like the GFS was really driving in the rain, while human forecasters were backing away from it. But again, the same amount of rain showed up on the model today. When I see good consistency in a model like that, alarm bells go off in my head. So now I'm thinking that we'll have a pretty good chance for rain on Thursday. It seems like others are catching onto this idea too, as their forecasts are showing a greater (40-50%) chance for rain...
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