We aren't just on the edge of the risk area today, we're in it. It's interesting because Thursday was supposed to be the big weather climax for this week, but it looks like it might start today. There is little threat for tornadoes, but wind and hail will be issues today. I think today's storms will be in a large, broken line of cells.
As I mentioned earlier, Thursday was supposed to be the big weather day for this week. It still is. We are under a SLIGHT risk again tomorrow for severe weather:
Most forecasts I've peeked at are slapping a 70-80% chance of storms on Thursday (as opposed to 40% for today). The NAM is showing a VERY pronounced line of thunderstorms in here for late Thursday night. It's positioning the heaviest precipitation values near our area too.
This event for tomorrow will start as some scattered heavy thunderstorms ahead of this front. As night descends upon us, I think this line of storms will drive on through with the worst of the weather. When I say worst of the weather, I mean wind and a little bit of hail, nothing too bad. It looks like the indications for hail are weak right now, although this system is proving complex to forecast. Since this will not be a super cell event (scattered HUGE thunderstorms), I agree that hail won't be much of an issue. Since this will be a multicellular event (clusters of t-storms), I think wind will be our primary issue.
Instability won't be all that great tomorrow, but I think the force of the cold front will be enough to get things stirred up...
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