Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Severe Threat Still on the Books...

We still have a severe weather threat from Saturday evening into Sunday. Again, as I've harped on before, timing is crucial to the severity here. We could get just some rain, or maybe more.

Also, there are some puzzling model runs that have been occurring over the past couple days. Today's 6z and 12z GFS models can't agree on anything past this weekend. The most recent run has a (don't get excited yet) snow event on the tail end of a whopper cold front for late next week. A similar situation is on tap for the week after that too, according to the GFS. I just don't like how the GFS puts these storms in different positions on every model run. My confidence level is extremely low at this point on anything past Sunday.

One thing I can bet on is wild weather for March. Due to our new pattern, where we sit on the edge of cold and warm air masses, we can expect wild ups and downs for a few weeks. I've been seeing forecasts (and model runs to support this) that have us running into the 60's before plunging into the 30's after a major cold front on many occasions. This is kind of a spring weather pattern...

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