Did I Speak Too Soon?

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED WELL AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

Yeah, I think I did speak too soon. Yesterday, we were seeing a southward movement of this low pressure. This would correspond with the severe threat moving south too. Today, there has been some northward movement of that low and the instability readings are coming in better for Thursday.

So yes, our severe threat has indeed gone up. I'm not sure as to the extent of the threat, but I'm sure we'll know on Wednesday.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY.

Spotter activation is when citizen weather observers call in reports of hail, wind, or tornadoes. This statement was posted on the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Anytime this statement pops up on the HWO, I get a little nervous. This usually means the fine folks at the Louisville NWS have a gut feeling about a system. If they are a little iffy, it says something like "Spotters are encouraged to monitor the situation and further forecasts". But no, this is straight forward.

Also, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) put out this interesting little bit too:

HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE
 STORMS WILL BE IN THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION (That's us) EWD INTO THE
 CAROLINAS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING...INSTABILITY AND
 SHEAR IS EXPECTED.

A little ominous, don't you think?

Looking at the GFS, there isn't a huge amount of moisture with this, but nevertheless there is some. Sometimes more moisture corresponds with a soaker instead of a rumbler, but that's just a hunch/hypothesis. Looking at the wind charts, there is some really strong winds with this. As with any severe weather outbreak, there are factors like sunlight and instability that will play a key role in severity.

As for that crazy thing that I talked about yesterday, it is still on there. Although we are now warmer with it so the snow would be much less. Just something fun to think about though...