Anyone can take a crack at this one!

Here's your chance to do a little forecasting! Simply put on a blindfold, and say rain or snow for Monday.

That's how things are looking now. I mean there is a literal 50/50 chance for rain-snow or just all snow. What's the difference? A whole heck of a lot.

This storm on Monday has THE moisture we need. Period. Now we need temperatures and low placement to cooperate with this. This thing is supposed to track slightly north as it nears, bringing us rain for Monday afternoon after a period of snow in the morning. The minute it goes south on Monday night, we are 100% snow until early Wednesday morning. Here's my problem, the GFS forecasts the heaviest moisture to come in here on Monday afternoon. So in this current case, the storm would be rain/freezing rain with a moderate snowfall on the tail end due to a secondary moisture pocket.

I don't buy that.

This system is developing like our Christmas 2004 storm, almost deja vu like. There was rain forecasted until 2 days before the storm. Then the city was panicked because there was no preparation due to the forecasted warm temps. I remember this storm well. It dropped an inch of sleet (rain was forecasted) and then it changed over to all snow, 10" in fact.

What if it is all snow? Then what?

Over this 36 hour period, we are forecasted to get .86" of moisture according to my calculated interpretation of the 18z GFS. Since it'll be warm, there will only be a 10:1 conversion of thawed rain to snow. If you do the math, you will see that is 8.6 inches of snow. I've even heard of a 10" scenario too. THIS IS STRICTLY HYPOTHETICAL.

You want my take right now? Here's what I think is going to happen. We will get a layer of a couple inches of snow on Monday morning. After about 2pm, this will change to sleet. Once 5pm rolls around, we'll get another 24 straight hours of snow. The grand total: .25" sleet, 5-6 inches of snow.

There is a secondary theory that I have too that is just as likely if not more. We still get our couple Mon. AM inches, but then we get a 2-3 hour period of rain. After the rain, we get a 2-3 inch snow event. Grand total: 2-3 inches of snow.

Again, these are theories that WILL change by tomorrow morning, on Sunday, and on Monday possibly.

Off Topic: See the Grammy Awards on Sunday evening. The famed reunion of my favorite band The Police is going to take place on the very beginning of the show. To hear a snippet of their music, listen to my forecast video intro...