8/2 - 9am - One Last Trip to Florida!

I'm off to Orlando, Florida for one last trip this summer before I have to move back to Mississippi State for the fall semester. It may be hot and muggy down there this time of year, but it's definitely a great way to top off a great summer break. After a week there, I'll be back in Louisville for a few days before heading back to college.

There's a possibility we could run into some issues with a developing tropical system this week that's currently positioned east of the Lesser Antilles. The National Hurricane Center says there's a 90% chance of this system becoming a tropical depression and the current computer model tracks (left) are taking it into the Bahamas later this week. Should Tropical Storm or Hurricane Colin form out of this and move near the Florida Peninsula, I'll post updates on Twitter and Facebook right from Orlando. Should be a fun week down there, but hopefully we don't get soaked by a tropical system!

6/20 - 5:30pm - Summer Starts Tomorrow, but it's Already HOT!

After a nice week on the Gulf Coast in Florida, I'm back home in Louisville. There were no sightings of tar balls or oil between Destin and Panama City while I was there, but both were creeping closer to shore according to reports. That area is just too beautiful to be spoiled by such an environmental catastrophe. Let's hope the spill doesn't go as far as forecast and that the right solutions are found to clean up the mess that many in Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are already dealing with.

It's 91 in Southeast Louisville right now, but when you add on the 72 degree dew point, it feels like 100 out there. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 6pm this evening, but I'm sure we'll see quite a few of those issued this week. Our average high temperature in Louisville for this time of year is 84 degrees, so we are definitely quite a bit above average. With high pressure and southerly winds in place, that heat will stick around for quite a while. I'd like to point out that summer starts tomorrow and we've already had quite a few days in the 90's already. Looks like we could be in for a scorcher of a summer!

Severe weather is cranking up across Kansas right now and Nebraska is in line for some later this evening. Parameters like instability, surface winds, and EHI are looking ripe for supercells with tornadoes possible. The SPC has issued a 10% risk for tornadoes and a Moderate Risk for severe weather across the Northern Plains, so the storm reports could be quite interesting as they come in this evening.

6/17 - 1pm CDT - Parasailing Video from Yesterday

I went parasailing on Panama City Beach, FL yesterday for the first time ever. It was great to see the beach from 300 feet in the air! A few thunderstorms formed just a few miles from the beachfront, but they stayed far enough away from us. Here's some video:



There still is no oil on the shores between Destin and Panama City Beach, but we've heard word-of-mouth reports this morning that an oil sheen was spotted a half-mile off a pier in Sandestin, FL.

6/15 - 10am CDT - Hello from the Florida Gulf Coast!

After four fun days of camping in the Tennessee heat at the Bonnaroo Music Festival, I'm glad to report that I've made it to Grayton Beach, Florida! I'll be here all this week on vacation and it'll for sure be a great time.

So far no tar balls or oil has come ashore in this area, which is sandwiched between Panama City and Destin, Florida. The computer forecast models for this oil spill are bringing some oil pretty close to shore this week, but hopefully it will be far enough away for the beaches to stay open.

6/9 - 10:30am - Leaving for Bonnaroo Tomorrow!

I'm off to the Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival in Manchester, Tennessee tomorrow. This will be my third time at the festival, which this year features musicians and groups like the Dave Matthews Band, Norah Jones, Stevie Wonder, and former Tonight Show host Conan O'Brien. While there are some hotels and other accommodations available in and around the festival, most people (including us) opt to camp out. This isn't your typical camping trip because attendees like to construct elaborate campsites with solar-powered L.E.D. lights, flags, speakers, and more. Should be fun! I won't have reliable internet access from the festival, so I won't be able to post on the blog until next week. Here's a weather forecast from the NWS if you're going:

Once Bonnaroo is finished on Monday, I'll be making my way down to Grayton Beach, Florida for a week of vacation. Reports of a few tar balls washing ashore from the Gulf oil disaster in this area have been coming in over the past few days (I'll post pictures here if I find any), but we'll see if the beaches remain open. The Florida Gulf Coast is a great place to vacation even if the beaches are closed, so it should be a great week anyway!

10/1 - 8pm - Storms Tonight, Fall Break

A broken line of thunderstorms stretching from Wisconsin to Texas will cross into Mississippi's Golden Triangle this evening and should provide a fair amount of thunder, lightning, and wind as it comes through. Here's the latest severe weather outlook from the SPC:


The SLIGHT Risk from the SPC ends in West Mississippi, but I think there's a chance that a couple storms still could be near severe limits when they get here later tonight. A few storms may linger into early tomorrow morning, but the remainder of the day should be dry. This weekend should be cooler and dry until Sunday night. Daily rain chances and warmer air come back into the area next week.

Since I have Monday and Tuesday off at MSU for fall break, I'm heading down to Orlando, Florida tomorrow to spend the long weekend with my family. Can you guess what my favorite theme park is in Florida? (Hint: the geodesic sphere on the left is an indication!)

There won't be a blog post or forecast until Tuesday at the earliest.

5/19 - 4pm - More Gorgeous Weather

Another cold morning brought out the jackets and sweaters for most, but today turned out to be great once things warmed up. Temperatures will get into the lower 80's tomorrow and mid 80's for Thursday. I think we'll hold on to those temperatures and dry weather until at least the weekend. A tropical disturbance from Florida looks like it will bring us scattered showers this weekend, but it certainly doesn't look like a wash-out at this time. It's still pretty quiet out in the Plains states... hopefully severe weather picks up later this week for all the storm chasers out there!

18 days until storm chasing begins!

8/27 - 6pm - Gustav is Causing Quite a Stir

Things haven't changed much since yesterday aside from the fact that Gustav has been downgraded to a tropical storm for the time being. This storm will become a hurricane again on Friday barring any drastic forecast track changes. Here's the latest from the NHC:



The spaghetti chart is still fairly consistent with yesterday's, but with a slight shift to the east:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

I didn't want to mention this until the storm got halfway past Cuba for the sake of accuracy, but the national media already did this for me. New Orleans is at risk from this storm. I have been seeing the writing on the wall for the past 48 hours and I'm sure many of you have as well. The storm's forecast track has been for the most part pretty consistent on going into the Gulf. Just about every model agrees that this storm will end up hitting the Gulf Coast, but where is the issue. The general gist right now is somewhere between West Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. I sure hope we're wrong about this and the forecast track changes, but I have a bad feeling at the moment. If these forecasts don't change by this Friday, talk of evacuations will skyrocket and the ball might already be rolling by then on getting people out of NOLA. Let's hope this doesn't need to happen. New Orleans is such a wonderful place to visit, which I did in June, and the culture there is simply unparalleled. Hopefully we'll get lucky and the models will trend a different way.

A few pockets of showers associated with the remnants of TS Fay like the ones we've been seeing all day are still around the area. They should dissipate overnight with a dry day ahead tomorrow. Next chance of rain will happen on Friday with a small probability of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Dry weather will prevail again for this weekend and into next week. Temperatures will touch 90 degrees for Labor Day and hold for the remainder of next week.

8/17 - 11am - Computer Models Are Confused With TS Fay

I've been checking the spaghetti charts for Tropical Storm Fay for a couple days now and I don't like what I see. Here's the current chart for Tropical Storm Fay:



This is definitely a wider spread of forecast tracks compared to the chart I showed on my forecast yesterday. Obviously the computer models are having a tough time with this storm. An interesting feature to note is that there are two general tracks outlined here, with a gap in the central panhandle of Florida. As I said before, I believe this storm will go west of Florida. Take a look at the historical tracks for storms near Fay's current position and you'll see why:



Notice that Central Florida has remained mostly unscathed by these storms. Most of these storms on the chart have gone east or west of Florida. Obviously this storm could break tradition, but I don't think it will. This sucker could be in the Gulf of Mexico off the West Florida coast on Tuesday if I'm right. The water in there is about 85 degrees and up, so once this storm is out of the area of interference from the islands in the Caribbean it could get stronger. In any case, the western Florida Keys will get clipped, so its good that evacuations have been ordered there. Let's wait and see on the track, it could be a totally different scenario tomorrow.

More uneventful weather will continue around here for this week, with not a drop of rain in sight. Expect highs to top out in the upper 80's to lower 90's for this week.