4/30 - 8:15pm - WeatherBrains Tonight!

This evening April 30th starting at 8:30pm CDT (0130 GMT) I'll be a guest panelist on the worldwide webcast of WeatherBrains! Be sure to tune in using by clicking this link which will take you to the live stream of the show. I'll be sure to post the recorded version of the podcast when it becomes available. Should be a fun time! On the podcast are lots of true "weather brains" like James Spann of ABC 33/40 in Birmingham, AL, Bill Murray, Brian Peters, J.B. Elliot, Kevin Selle, and a featured guest each week.

Update: Listen to the recorded podcast on my website.

5 days until my annual storm chasing trek with Storm Chasing Adventure Tours!

3/2 - 12:30am - Severe Weather Outbreak Likely

A potent severe weather setup looks likely this afternoon and evening for Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, and even parts of Indiana and Ohio. All the ingredients are coming together for what could be a sizable tornado outbreak in these areas, especially around Middle Tennessee and Central Kentucky, maybe extending into Indiana too. We've had severe weather in some of these places just earlier this week, but this setup looks to be even more potent than that. Cities like Louisville, Lexington, Cincinnati, Nashville, Bowling Green, KY, Huntsville, Jackson, TN, Tupelo, MS, Starkville, MS, and Birmingham need to be on the lookout today.

Risks and Timing

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Moderate Risk area for severe weather tomorrow in an expansive area of the South. This includes a 15% tornado risk. Storms will likely erupt early this morning as a warm front surges northward and bring a hail risk to West Tennessee while not-as-strong storms will affect the most of the remainder of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi. These storms shouldn't be a huge deal, but a few might reach severe limits.

A brief break in the action throughout the mid and late morning hours should provide enough recovery time for the atmosphere to recharge and re-fire storms around noon. These storms will try to get going in West Tennessee and Northeast Arkansas, but will gain strength as they hit areas of greater surface heating to the east. These are the storms that could be very bad in a lot of areas. The worst tornado threat throughout the afternoon will be in Central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee, but there's a secondary area that could have tornado problems in Northeast Mississippi into North Alabama if a little more low-level wind shear comes into play. The Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather outlook seems to pick up on that secondary tornado risk area by extending the Moderate Risk down to East Mississippi and Alabama. Straight-line wind damage and hail will be possible throughout the South tomorrow, so even if you're not in an area where tornadoes will be likely you need to be on the lookout for severe storms. The storms should move out quickly tomorrow evening once the cold front accelerates southeastward through the region.

Details

The reason why Central Kentucky to Middle Tennessee will be the area for maximum tornado potential tomorrow is because of an alignment of a few factors. For one, the fastest upper-level winds will be centered right over this area tomorrow afternoon. When you couple that with almost southerly winds (may be a bit southwesterly at times), you get not only a high difference between wind speed aloft and at the surface, but also a difference in direction. This is called wind shear and it's crucial to sustaining a thunderstorm and allowing it to become strong enough for tornado development. The southerly winds at the surface will help what's called low-level wind shear, and that's usually a pretty big factor in who gets tornadoes.

These southerly winds will also be bringing in moist air from the Gulf, which is the fuel for these storms as they develop. While the best moisture will be over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee tomorrow, it will still be ample for serious severe weather in Kentucky. This moisture will bring some serious atmospheric instability to the region. When you couple this instability with helicity (the tendency for the atmosphere to rotate), you get what's called the Energy Helicity Index (EHI). This is a decent indicator of where the best tornado ingredients will be, and as you can see on the left, the values are particularly high tomorrow across a pretty vast area from Mississippi through Kentucky. Supercells appear likely in Tennessee and Kentucky, but Northeast Mississippi may have more of a mixed supercell/squall line of storms scenario due to less wind shear. This could be an entirely linear squall line event across Northeast Mississippi/North Alabama tomorrow if wind shear under performs. While squall lines don't harbor as many strong tornadoes, it is still a very real threat that needs to be monitored.

Safety

Before severe weather

• Make sure your cell phone is charged in case you lose power
• Have flashlights with fresh batteries ready to go. Your cell phone should NOT be your primary flashlight
• Your NOAA Weather Radio/Cell phone alert app should be ready to alert you
• Make a central meeting location for family members should you lose communications after the severe weather passes

I've said before that I like iMapWeather Radio on the iPhone for weather alerts. This is not any sort of endorsement, but it is an app that I use and it just works.

When a Tornado Warning is issued for your area

• Get to the lowest level of your home, apartment, or office
• Stay away from windows and try to get to the center of the structure you're in
• Evacuate mobile homes and get to a safe, sturdy building immediately
• Make sure you are wearing sturdy shoes
• If you have time (have these ready to go before a warning is issued), put bicycle helmets on the kids and yourself. Quite a few deaths were caused by head trauma in last year's tornadoes.

Please heed ALL warnings. This is a dangerous severe weather setup that needs no playing around with.

1/25 - 6pm - MSU Forecast and a Look Back at Monday Morning's Storms

Another bout of severe weather is affecting the South as a powerful line of storms continues to push through Louisiana. These storms have spawned some tornadoes today across Louisiana and Texas while a Tornado Watch remains in effect for areas from Lake Charles, Louisiana to just south of Greenville, Mississippi. We'll be watching these storms as they track into eastern portions of Mississippi tomorrow morning. There's a chance they could be severe here in Starkville and the Golden Triangle, but the main threat should remain south of the area. Once these storms clear out we'll be left with a fantastic few days heading into the weekend. Find out more in your full forecast below:

from ABC 33/40 on Flickr

A place that's no stranger to tornadoes was hit again early Monday morning as storms dropped ten tornadoes in Alabama. The house on your left was hit by a tornado in Trussville, which is just northeast of Birmingham. These tornadoes caused over 100 injuries and at least two deaths as they moved through the darkness. Be sure to check out NWS Birmingham's updated public information page regarding this event to see the strengths and tracks that these tornadoes took. Arkansas was also hit badly by tornadoes (at least four as damage assessments continue) and you can read a synopsis of the severe weather event in that neck of the woods from this page posted by NWS Little Rock.

West Tennessee managed to escape the brunt of this system, but the National Weather Service in Memphis is investigating an area of damage near Lexington, TN (Henderson County) for a possible tornado. They've already confirmed straight-line wind damage in both Memphis and Middleburg, TN so far. NWS Memphis also has a page where you can see their ongoing assessment of damage in the area. UPDATE 12:10am: NWS Memphis has now confirmed an EF-1 tornado in Henderson County near Lexington, TN:

5 S Lexington [Henderson Co, TN] nws storm survey reports TORNADO of F1 at 22 Jan, 11:58 PM CST -- ef1 tornado with estimated winds of 105 mph touched down 5 miles south of lexington and continued east 8 miles. numerous trees were uprooted or snapped along the path. a roof was blown off a house. a shed in the backyard was also destroyed. the tornado touched down on primarily ridge tops before eventually lifting just northeast of butterscotch road. maximum width 150 yards.

This event again underscores the need for more ways to get the warning out to folks, especially during an overnight event when people are asleep. The best way to do this is have a NOAA Weather Radio in alert mode by your bedside or to have an app on your iPhone like iMapWeather Radio. There are text-based alerting solutions offered by individual TV stations and networks too.

10/17 - 11:30pm - NWA 2011 Meeting Wrap-Up

Both yesterday and today I attended and volunteered at the 36th Annual National Weather Association Meeting in Birmingham, Alabama. This was the most-attended NWA meeting in history and evidence of that was clear this morning when there were no more seats for attendees! The volunteer portion of my attendance had me taking video of research posters from students and professionals for the agenda on the NWA website. While the meeting runs until Thursday, I had to leave late this afternoon to attend to class-related things back in Starkville. I wish I could've stayed longer because this was one of the best put together functions I've ever attended.

Speaking of attendance, I was able to meet quite a few experienced broadcast meteorologists while I was there. Some of those folks were Jim Cantore (The Weather Channel), Jacqui Jeras (CNN), Christie Dutton (WAVE-TV Louisville), Ryan Vaughan (KAIT-TV Jonesboro), Mary Wasson (YNN Austin), and Dave Freeman (KSNW Wichita). It was also great to see some old friends whom I've met before in Starkville at the Mississippi State Severe Storms Symposium.

The sessions that took place while I was there mostly focused on the historic tornadoes from this past year, and some of these spurred some really great discussion on how we as broadcast and operational meteorology professionals can improve our methods to save lives in severe weather. One of the things that strikes me from multiple presentations is the public's low use of NOAA weather radios. While these are lifesaving devices, it's clear that these things are very difficult to operate if you're not familiar with consumer electronic devices or don't understand how SAME codes work. This is a huge problem because people then depend on less reliable means of receiving warnings like tornado sirens. As I tweeted earlier today, Dave Freeman suggested that weather radios should use ZIP codes instead of SAME codes to separate out warnings. This would be much easier because just about everyone knows their ZIP code, but almost nobody (including me!) knows their county SAME code without consulting the NWS website. It's true that this wouldn't be an easy solution since either the radios or warning system would have to be able to identify ZIP codes based on coordinate polygons and because some ZIP codes are way too big. In the long run though, these would be relatively minor changes to a system that's had years of development behind it.

There's also been talk from a lot of people suggesting the placement of GPS chips in weather radios to determine exact location so that there's even less of a chance of the radio going off for a warning that does not pertain to the user. This is also a great idea that wouldn't require terribly huge changes to radios and how warnings are issued. Overall, I gathered from today's and yesterday's presentations that more needs to be done to make severe weather warnings more accessible and understandable to the public to save lives in events like April 27th. The technology is there and the ideas are in place, and the recent tornadoes that claimed so many lives this year are proof that these changes are necessary.

9/4 - 12:30pm - Yesterday's GMWT Video, TS Lee Update

Yesterday we began airing Good Morning West Tennessee for an additional hour starting at 8am. This means the Saturday show is now two hours, from 6-7am and again at 8-9am with Good Morning America airing in between. The forecast for West Tennessee still looks very wet today into tomorrow because of Tropical Storm Lee, but I think the rain should clear out as Labor Day rolls along. Check out some video from yesterday's broadcast below:

Lee is just hanging on to tropical storm status and should be downgraded to a depression later today as it moves inland. Just because it's weakening doesn't mean the risks from it will go away. Portions of Central Mississippi (I'm talking to you Starkville), Alabama, and even up through the Appalachian Mountains in North Carolina could see over eight inches of rain between now and Tuesday. Flooding is obviously a concern, so use caution while driving in these areas. Turn around, don't drown!

Tornadoes are also continuing a problem with Lee. There were 10 reports of tornadoes yesterday, some causing damage, along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Two tornado watches are in effect with about a half dozen warnings in them from Mississippi to Florida. The tornado risk from Lee should lessen as it continues to come onshore tonight and tomorrow.

7/3 - 12:30pm - Fantastic Fourth Forecasts

A cold front sliding southward through Indiana and Kentucky this morning has triggered some thunderstorms in Southwest Indiana that likely won't make it to the Louisville area this afternoon, but more storms could develop later on. While any storm that forms this afternoon could have heavy rain, lightning, and some gusty winds, most if not all will stay below severe limits. Temperatures are already in the upper 80's around the Louisville area, so a high near 93 today looks good at this point.

How about those Fourth of July forecasts? Hot and humid will be the rule for most locations, but scattered afternoon thunderstorms covering quite a large area could drench a few of those outdoor barbecues. The storms will be large in coverage due to a trough hanging around the eastern half of the US and a stationary front near the Ohio River.


Here are some Independence Day forecasts for selected regional locations from the National Weather Service:

Louisville, KY: Partly Sunny | 89 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Lexington, KY: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Evansville, IN: Mostly Cloudy | 87 degrees | 50% afternoon storms
Indianapolis, IN: Mostly Sunny | 85 degrees
Cincinnati, OH: Partly Sunny | 86 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, TN: Mostly Sunny | 93 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Memphis, TN: Mostly Sunny | 95 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Nashville, TN: Mostly Cloudy | 92 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Knoxville, TN: Partly Sunny | 91 degrees | 40% afternoon storms
Tupelo, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Starkville, MS: Mostly Sunny | 96 degrees | 20% afternoon storms
Jackson, MS: Mostly Sunny | 97 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Birmingham, AL: Partly Sunny | 94 degrees | 30% afternoon storms
Atlanta, GA: Mostly Sunny | 94 degrees | 50% afternoon storms

5/1 - 5:15pm - Southern Tornado Outbreak Aftermath

Absolute hell. That's about the only way to describe last week's historic severe weather outbreak in the South. It started on Monday the 25th in Texas and Arkansas as a fairly significant rash of tornadoes and slowly spread eastward on the 26th with an increased amount of tornado reports over a larger area. As the system made its way into the untapped unstable air of Mississippi and Alabama on the 27th, dozens of supercell thunderstorms exploded into existence on a scale that hasn't been seen since the Super Outbreak of 1974. The Storm Prediction Center issued a HIGH Risk for severe weather for much of Alabama and Mississippi. Numerous PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watches were in place. Since the National Weather Service and media had exhausted just about every option to inform the public of the impending tornado outbreak, all that was left to do was to hope that it wouldn't turn out to be as bad as feared.

Around 2:45am CDT: My NOAA weather radio jolts me out of bed as a Tornado Warning is issued for Oktibbeha County, Mississippi, which is where Mississippi State University is located. The ugly bow echo/embedded supercell structure line of storms that crossed the Mississippi River just as I went to bed for the night held its strength well into the early morning hours as it passed through Northeast Mississippi. The rotation in a cell near the MSU campus appeared to be passing just to the south after watching the radar for a few minutes, so I was ready to head back to bed (had a differential equations final exam scheduled for 8am). That's when a cell to the north of Starkville caught my eye. The rotation as indicated by the base velocity input on this cell was extremely strong. I felt it was very odd to see rotation this pronounced in a storm that was embedded in a mess of other storms this late at night, but this was no run-of-the-mill outbreak. This is what I saw (Thanks NWS JAN for posting these):



It was a forgone conclusion that this storm was putting down a tornado based on the radar and reports coming in. To the bottom right of the storm is Starkville, so Mississippi State was within a short drive of this tornado. One fatality and 20 injuries occurred before the tornado lifted in Clay County. It was rated an EF-3 with 140mph winds after a storm survey.

After my final exam, I packed my entire dorm room into my car and checked out so I could head back home to Louisville for the summer. The early morning storms were long gone to the east by that point, but a slew of supercells were already forming in the afternoon heating of the day and dry
line push near the Mississippi River. I raced northward on US 45 trying to beat a majority of the storms before they cut off my route into Tennessee. One of these supercells would go on to produce the first EF-5 tornado in Mississippi since 1966. This tornado hit Smithville, MS head-on and caused 14 fatalities with 40 injures in Monroe County before 4pm CDT. Here's a panoramic photo taken by Mississippi State University's Director of Broadcast Meteorology Renny Vandewege of the Smithville damage:



I realized rather quickly that my good fortune was going to run out north of Tupelo, MS, but I kept traveling north in hopes of possibly catching up with the updraft base of a supercell that was going to cross the road right in front of me. This cell had definite rotation in it and reports of grapefruit-sized hail were coming across the wires, so I knew I had to calculate my position delicately. An image of my position (blue cross-hairs) compared to the velocity couplet on radar is below:



I was within a mile of the updraft base when the rain and hail from a cell just to the south and west of the one I wanted to intercept began overspreading my route. It looked like I was heading into a giant black wall of cloud and precipitation, almost cave-like in the way that it extended from the sky to the ground. Wind gusts of over 40mph began to hit my car and that's when I knew to turn around and head toward Baldwyn, MS to avoid damage to my vehicle. Visibility was horrible because of the rain being thrown into the path of my storm by the other, so I would have not been able to see a tornado until it was too late had I continued on. After waiting a few minutes near Baldwyn, it was was safe to drive north again due to a gap that had formed between storms on US 45. The rest of my drive to Louisville was uneventful due to calmer weather in West Tennessee and Kentucky.

On the way home I listened to the audio of Birmingham's ABC 33/40 severe weather stream. Hearing James Spann's coverage of the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham wedge tornado and seeing the images after the fact was heartbreaking. It is nearly impossible to not have mass fatalities from a wedge tornado that hits two major cities head-on, especially when most residents do not have basements. The visibility of the tornado may have saved many lives that Wednesday because TV stations, including ABC 33/40, were able to show viewers live pictures from their outdoor sky cameras of the tornado wreaking havoc on the cities:

Multiple-vortex wedge tornado hitting Tuscaloosa from ABC 33/40's Sky Cam

These pictures made much more impact on the residents of the area than a radar image, so the motivation to take cover from this storm was far greater than usual. The path of this storm took it from Kemper County, MS to western North Carolina, lasting over seven hours. This tornado has been rated at least an EF-3, but ongoing damage surveys could increase this preliminary rating.

The 342 confirmed deaths from this outbreak has already eclipsed the Super Outbreak of 1974, and this number is sure to rise with the number of people still missing. Sorting out the actual number of tornadoes remains a tedious task for multiple NWS offices, but so far 121 have been confirmed from the 25th to the 28th. Up until last week most severe weather outbreaks were compared to the Super Outbreak of 1974. From now on, the Super Outbreak of 2011 will be an additional basis for comparison.

175 tornadoes were reported on April 27th. Many of those reports are duplicates.

If you would like to help the thousands of residents in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas and more affected by this outbreak, please consider donating to the American Red Cross by clicking the link on the right-hand column of this blog.

4/14 - 7pm - MS/TN/AL Tornado Outbreak Possible Tomorrow

Severe Weather Setup

A potential tornado outbreak is poised to affect Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee tomorrow as a rather potent low and associated trough swing through the central part of the nation. Once a warm front passes through the region tomorrow morning and moisture from the south begins to filter in, all forms of severe weather will be possible in North Mississippi, North Alabama, and West Tennessee. I want to place a particular emphasis on Northeast Mississippi and Northwest Alabama, where the greatest risk of tornadoes appears to be at this time. Large hail and damaging winds are possible across the entire region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed these areas under a 45% Moderate Risk of severe weather for tomorrow.

Keep up with my weather updates on my Twitter and Facebook page.

Timing

Timing is going to be difficult to pin down tomorrow as some computer models have slowed down the overall movement of the system. Areas near the Delta in Mississippi could see severe weather late tonight, but the remainder of the state shouldn't see any until the morning and afternoon hours. Here in Starkville it'll most likely be after 11am when we begin to see supercells pop up on the radar and the risk for severe weather could extend well into the early evening hours. West Tennessee will likely see the risk for severe weather develop after noon and extend to just after sunset. NWS Jackson's timeline on the left is a pretty good guess at when things will develop and where tomorrow.

Details

The SPC's Moderate Risk verifies quite well on the computer model forecasts. Ahead of a surface low in Missouri tomorrow, surface winds will become southeasterly in East Mississippi and West Alabama while upper-level winds (500mb) will be quite strong out of the southwest. This will cause quite a bit of directional and speed shear from the lower levels to the upper levels of the atmosphere that will aid in the creation of rotating supercell thunderstorms. These individual cells will most definitely carry a tornado risk as they develop and roll through tomorrow after the noon hour. Dew points in the mid to upper 60's will aid in the creation of these storms and send instability (CAPE) values well over 1500 J/kg in places.

The SREF model's Significant Tornado Parameter will be at a 4 for most of Mississippi tomorrow, but again the ingredients for tornado creation will most likely be at their prime in the eastern half of the state in the afternoon. West Tennessee won't be at quite the high level of risk that Northeast Mississippi/Northwest Alabama will be in tomorrow due to a lessening of moisture and instability as you head northward, but tornadoes, wind, and large hail are still in play tomorrow afternoon.

I will be driving from Starkville to Jackson, TN tomorrow afternoon in preparation for my Saturday morning show at WBBJ-TV. I am going to try and time my departure so that I can possibly intercept a supercell from its southern side as I drive northward. Storm motions of over 40 mph and the poor road network in Northeast Mississippi aren't good for storm chasing, so that's off the table unless something extraordinary happens.

10/26 - 5pm - MSU Weathercast / Severe Weather

We're under a Tornado Watch in Starkville until 7pm tonight as a cold front continues to kick up a few severe thunderstorms around North Mississippi. We've been lucky enough to miss the bulk of the severe weather here in Mississippi, but areas in Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky have been dealing with wind damage and tornadoes throughout the morning and afternoon today. As this record-breaking low pressure system in Minnesota begins to weaken and move off to the east, weather conditions will improve across much of the East and we'll see the return of sunny skies and cool temperatures here in Mississippi. Check out my latest MSU forecast video below: