5/24 - 10:30am CDT - Messy Setup in the North Plains

We're not terribly optimistic about today's severe weather setup in Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. The SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe weather today, but southerly flow at 500mb, fast storm motion, and ongoing thunderstorms in North Dakota will make today a difficult chase day. The southerly flow happened yesterday as well, which caused storms to become somewhat linear and move from south to north. Fast storm motion, on the order of 60 mph or more, means we won't be able to chase individual cells, but rather get in position to let them pass over us. CAPE values of 3000 J/kg, good moisture, and decent shear will sustain a severe threat, but it seems like the 15% tornado threat that the SPC is advertising won't be as great. We'll see how it goes today, but right now we're not expecting a very good setup this afternoon.

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