1/8 - 6pm - The Cold is Coming, Maybe Snow?

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It's been bitterly cold across the metro today, with a high temperature just above freezing at midnight. We've been falling since then and winds picked up this afternoon, so there was definitely a sub-20 degree windchill to deal with. Temperatures will rise into the 40s tomorrow as an area of low pressure approaches the area. Accompanying this low will be some rain for late Friday into Saturday. Highs for the weekend will stay just below 40 with a few flurries or snow showers possible as the area of low pressure exits the area.

The super-cold air that has been well-publicized over the past week is still coming, but it's up in the air as to when it will really get here. Here's the interesting part: The models are injecting more moisture into this pattern. As I said yesterday, the GFS has a history (at least this season) of underestimating moisture in the long range. A couple clipper systems will come through early in the week, but it's difficult to tell which of these would give us snow. My thinking right now is that the Monday clipper will be too far north to give us any snow, but the Tuesday one might be right on the money for an accumulating snow. The last couple runs of the GFS are delaying the cold air until Thursday, but I still think that's up in the air due to low placement and phasing issues.

Is there the potential for a big storm in all of this? Yes. Do I see a definite large storm in the cards yet? Absolutely not.

The development in the models of this cold pattern needs more time to mature. There was a large storm on the GFS just days ago with the entrance of this cold air on Tuesday, but it has since reverted back into a normal clipper. This is definitely something to watch, especially if a storm like this pops up again with the later arrival of the cold air on Thursday.

At any rate, any snow that falls will be heavier in the upcoming cold air next week due to conversion ratios. Snow at 28-32 degrees has a conversion ratio of around 10:1, meaning for every .1" of rain there exists a potential for 1" of snow. When we have temperatures in the mid 20's or lower, that ratio could go up to 15:1 or higher. That means any weak system could put down some very nice snow amounts! We'll see what happens over the next few days with this cold air and potential snow.