On to the next storm, which could be a whopper if things fall into place. An area of low pressure surging north from the Gulf of Mexico should cool things down on Monday from the near 50 degree temperatures we'll have on Sunday. The accompanying precipitation with this storm will be impressive to say the least, maybe even historic. Here's the latest model outputs:
18z GFS
12z ECMWF (European)
18z DGEX
Notice how all three of these models offer a similar track for the intense low, which is west of where it was forecast to go yesterday. The Canadian (posted yesterday) looks about the same, but has shifted west slightly. You're probably looking at the darker greens and blues on the GFS and DGEX and saying "Uh-oh." I'm saying the same thing. Look at this preliminary accumulation estimate taken from the GFS for this storm:
Yeah, that's 6-8" at a 10:1 rain/snow ratio. Here's the problem: we'll be operating at a ratio that could get higher than 12:1 during the coldest part of the storm, when the freezing line at the surface sinks way south of here. These totals could be nearing 12" if that happens.
We're still four days away, so things could change. The daunting issue is that the models are agreeing on this storm pretty well. I think there is a chance that it could correct eastward, but I'm only seeing westward trends at this point. If this low track changes slightly and pulls up more moisture from the Gulf, we could be dealing with a historic storm. It will be interesting to see what happens. Again, whatever happens on the models this weekend will be the deciding factor on whether Louisville, Lexington, or somewhere further east gets the brunt of this storm.
1 comment:
well first i live in jacksonville arkansas and i am also watching this very closely and you said it ryan its scary how well the models are agreeing and as much as i like snow- for once i dont want the snow because that would hinder the help from the recent ice storm
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