There's a word I like to hear when we have a storm in the forecast: model convergence. I haven't heard it or said it once today. This system next week that could bring us a ton of snow, a nasty ice storm, or a boatload of rain just cannot be forecast accurately at this point using our 21st century technology. The GFS gives us a smattering of snow on Tuesday before cranking up the rain for Wednesday and Thursday. I'm getting a similar gist from the Euro as well.
I just looked at the HPC's low track and they have the low tracking through Tennessee. The DGEX model seems to agree with that to some degree. The thing I've seen the most on all of these models has been a depletion of moisture on Monday and Tuesday to the storm (two systems going on here) on Wednesday-Thursday. I also noticed that the Louisville NWS is sticking to their guns with an all snow solution for both systems on our local forecast package, although they note how difficult they are being forecast-wise. I think we'll know by Sunday if we're going to get socked by this thing or not. Don't get your hopes up.
What I can bet on is warm weather for tomorrow! After a high in the 50s today, we'll see mid 50s for tomorrow. The reality of Winter will set in by the weekend, with lower 30s for both Saturday and Sunday.
2 comments:
Ryan,
This most likely will not be a snowstorm. It was pointed out to me by a local meteorologist that around 90% of the time the Ohio Valley has a snow storm, it is approx. 24 hours after a cold front moves in. The cold front is coming tomorrow, and this storm will be much to late for that. However, it is still interesting to track and see if we get one of those "10%" of the time storms.
Agreed, but I won't be calling for rain, snow, or ice until I see some solid model convergence this weekend or next week. Still too early to tell.
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