AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY RESULTING IN RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING OR BELOW. THE MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION.Based on the current model runs, I think we'll see rain change to freezing rain and sleet by Monday afternoon. We should see all snow by late on Monday, but the damage will be done at that point. I'm thinking a quarter inch of ice will accumulate with another half inch to an inch of snow on top of that by Tuesday morning. Travel will be very hazardous if this pans out. With regards to school delays and cancellations, I think there will be many of those Tuesday morning and a few possible early dismissals on Monday IF temperatures fall below freezing in the early to mid afternoon. We'll see how that goes.
Currently, the HPC has us on the fence between a SLIGHT and MODERATE risk for .25" of ice on Monday:
4 comments:
Ryan, I'm watching this system closely for my area too. We are currently on the fringe of this event, but the models have been trneding more Southward and if that continues...we will be right in the thick of it. Good luck forecasting this event for your area.
for schools to dismiss early on Monday .. what would have to occur? When are you thinking the ice begins tommmrrow
From what I understand from my years at JCPS, if the forecast calls for hazardous weather (ice) within the time that buses are running in the afternoon, then they will dismiss early. I say we'll see freezing rain start somewhere between 1 and 3pm, which would absolutely fall within bus route times. The decision to cancel lies with the superintendent, but I'm sure he'll listen closely to the National Weather Service tomorrow.
This is an interesting one to watch for. Temps are unusually warm today ,high of 59 according to my vehicle thermo. but I don't think its going to fall below freezing right until time for school to let out but I saw that the wind chill will certainly dip below freezing by that point! Keep us updated please! Thanks for the hard work!
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