Wednesday, December 10, 2008

12/10 - 7:15pm - Storm Shifting West... FREEZING RAIN

This has just come up over the last 12 hours, but the storm system I told you about yesterday is beginning to shift this way. Right now it looks like we're in for some freezing rain tonight and tomorrow morning as surface temperatures dip below freezing and upper air temps stay a little above. If this system were to shift further west or temperatures drop more, which is possible, we could be dealing with a full-on snow storm. Yikes!

Here's what got my attention earlier today:



This map shows that we're under a SLIGHT Risk for 4 or more inches of snow tonight. This area has shifted quite a bit west from last night's predictions, and there's no telling how much further we could go in the next few model runs. Here's the latest from our local NWS office:

CLEARLY WE REMAIN RIGHT ON THE FENCE WITH THIS EVENT. JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER AT THE SURFACE AND WE WOULD SEE MUCH MORE FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ALOFT WOULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE EAST. WE WILL USE THE HWO AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS EVENT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WARNING BEING ISSUED LATER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

Obviously the last sentence could very well play out, even if we just get freezing rain tonight. Our surface temperature in Louisville is 36 right now, so we still need a few more degrees before we hit the magic 32.

My take on this right now is that we will see a little bit of freezing rain overnight and tomorrow morning. If we see even the slightest shift west in this system, then we're in for more than that. I'll keep a watch on it and post if anything more develops.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

uh oh...

Anonymous said...

can you say in your next post what your thinking for JCPS Schools?

Ryan Hoke said...

I don't know yet... but I think we'll probably have school and there's a small chance for a delay at the moment. This is all very much subject to change based on this low track, and plus, I don't know what the transportation officials will recommend tomorrow morning.

If we get a little bit of freezing rain as forecast, then I'd say no school issues tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

Would the snow and freezing rain cause problems in the morning or would it be an early dismissal chance?

Ryan Hoke said...

It would be a morning issue, but again, it doesn't look like we'll see many problems if we follow the current forecast.

Anonymous said...

how is the radar looking now

Anonymous said...

are you going to do live weather coverage???a

Ryan Hoke said...

No live coverage during a snow event... also radar shows system moving north out of Louisiana right now.

Anonymous said...

what does that mean for us in louisville

Ryan Hoke said...

Thinking this will be a freezing rain event only based on radar. Looks like the low will not track any further west than anticipated. So, just a little bit of drizzle or freezing rain here tonight.