9/8 - 4:30pm - Ike Could be a Texan

It looks like we've got a better idea for a landfall location than yesterday. The current NHC guidance and spaghetti chart all take it to the Texas Gulf Coast as a Category 3 before landfall:




(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

This is not a final forecast for landfall by any means. This storm still has to navigate through the terrain of Cuba once more before it pops out into the Gulf. Models are sometimes thrown off by how terrain affects a storm, so we'll watch for that. After it exits Cuba we should have a fairly firm idea of where this storm will go.

We've got a pretty good chance for rain tonight, although it won't be a great amount. The rain should be out of here by tomorrow afternoon, which sets us up for a clear Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances return by Thursday, with temperatures ranging from the upper 70's to mid 80's for the week.