9/5 - 6pm - I (Don't) Like Ike

First off, the drizzle, mist, or whatever you want to call it will end later tonight and a dry weekend will be in the cards. Expect temperatures to be in the mid 80's for this weekend and through Tuesday, when we should see a nice drop in temperature for the week ahead.

The tropics are again stealing the weather show as Hanna gets ready to come ashore as a strong tropical storm and Ike takes an unexpected turn in the models.

Here's Hanna's track:



With winds at 70mph right now, Hanna is a strong tropical storm just under Category 1 hurricane status. It should weaken just before it hits land, so I really think this will be a rain maker and flooding issue more than a wind maker.

Hurricane Ike is a different story. Yesterday I reported on the blog that it was still in limbo as to whether the storm would even hit land. Here's what happened today in its track:



Yep, that's a Category 3 Ike trying to wedge itself between Florida and Cuba. The NHC's outlook has it weakening a bit this weekend before strengthening to a Category 4 by next week, so we'll really have to look at this storm seriously. This shift was caused by a forecast weakening of high pressure near the Gulf of Mexico coupled with some weakening of high pressure over Florida causing a northward turn near Tuesday. Obviously it's too far out to tell if this series of weakening will actually occur and to what effect Cuba and Florida will have on the storm's strength. Here's the latest spaghetti chart:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

What a crazy couple of weeks it's been in the tropics!