5/18 - 5:30pm - It's a Bit Hot... Could We Really Have a New England Hurricane?

I noticed today as I was sitting outside eating lunch that it's a bit hot for September. Quantitatively, we're around 10 degrees above average for this time of year. We hit 90 degrees, which really hits this point home since our average high is 76 for today. Even though it's dry, it still got a bit uncomfortable in the sun this afternoon.

The GFS is now showing an area low pressure (possibly a tropical storm) coming ashore in North Carolina on Friday, giving us a small chance of rain on the same day. I'm not real optimistic with that right now, so don't get your hopes up for rain anytime soon. Still looks like next Tuesday has a better chance for rain, but that's subject to change this far out.

A few computer models are starting to unnerve some of the weather community today as they show a hurricane hitting New England this weekend:


(NOTE: The CLP5 and XTRP lines on the chart are not to be used as forecast tracks)

As the spaghetti chart says, this isn't even a tropical depression yet. Once it's a tropical storm, it's name will be Kyle (unless the low off of North Carolina beats it). The models are confused as all get out at this point, so none of these forecast tracks should be given more than a glance. As far as strength goes, most are shooting for a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. The outlier was the GFDL model which suggested a nasty Category 2 storm near Long Island, but I wouldn't give that prediction the time of day under the circumstances. We just need to sit back and watch this thing during the week.