Be sure to vote for how much snow you think will fall on Friday in my poll on the right side of the blog.
Today's model runs sealed the deal for our storm. It looks like we'll at least get an inch... more realistically I think we'll get 4-6". There is still some uncertainty regarding the storm track because the models are a mess at this point. They're in GENERAL agreement that we'll have a storm, but as to how much snow is really the sticking point. The NAM swings in a massive storm with inches upon inches of snow here while the GFS is more conservative and gives us a nice 4" storm.
The main reason why these two models differ is the Appalachians... This thing has to go around them either to the east or west. An easterly trek gives us the GFS's storm whereas the westerly trek gives us the NAM's monstrosity. I think the easterly track is more favorable based on past tracks, but most of our massive storms have gone west of the mountains. So it's certainly possible either way.
The NWS in Louisville is just hours away from issuing a watch (probably Winter Storm Watch) for the area. They're holding out at the moment to see one more model run before they pull the trigger. The discussion said they're concerned with the possibility of some rain coming into play, but they're really the only ones saying anything about that at this point. All other weather sites have an all snow scenario for us.
The GFS does bring the freezing line at ground level pretty close to us, but the freezing line at a few thousand feet is pretty far away. So it'll snow pretty good at the onset, but it may not stick until early Friday if temps are a little warm.
Here's the timeline for this sucker:
Thursday Evening - Light snow showers/flurries
Friday Early AM - Moderate snow sets in... falling temperatures (1 inch)
Friday Afternoon - Heavy snow starts (2-3 inches)
Friday Night - Snow tapers off to showers (1-2 inches, fluffier snow due to falling temps)
Saturday Early AM - Showers taper off (0-2 inches)
Notice how all the higher numbers in the accumulation estimates add up to 8". This is certainly possible if a hybrid GFS/NAM solution plays out. If the NAM solution starts looking favorable, these numbers will go up seriously (to 8-10"). The HPC has us in a slight risk for over 4" for both Friday and Saturday. This means that in these periods we'll see new snow accumulations of possibly over 4". So the HPC sees 4-8" it looks like.
I'll keep an eye on this and have another post tomorrow afternoon around 5-7pm. Keep in mind that this is possibly our last snow for the season...
