The SPC has placed us under a 5% risk of severe weather from Tuesday night on into Wednesday. I think this is too low because there is enough instability and shear here to warrant a line of severe storms. Even though the CAPE model (measures air instability) isn't terribly optimistic about anything severe here, I think the energy coming out of the plains states will be enough to carry the storms over our area. Granted, they'll be nothing like any storms that Houston, Texas receives on the same day (they are under a MODERATE RISK for severe weather), but we'll still see some of the dying remnants.
I think we'll only see severe thunderstorm warnings here and the tornadoes should stay southwest of us. The bigger story is the possibility of flooding. Some areas around here could receive up to 4 inches of rain fall according to the NWS and HPC. So we're under a flood watch due to that and we should see some flooding problems crop up on Wednesday. Be careful!
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