We got tons of rain today! My rain gauge at home shows 1.37" since midnight and the storm total is 1.9". North of Louisville received more than we did, with well over 2". Luckily that's winding down and the flooding should calm down soon.
Now to explain my "Uh Oh" title... We're in for some snow tonight that I thought wouldn't happen. The snow over St. Louis is dying and reforming itself in southern Illinois and is now moving towards us. I don't think this is a big snow, but I certainly think that it'll cover the ground. With the water on the ground freezing a little overnight and the snow on top of that (.5" or so), we'll have a few slick spots on the roads. Expect a rapid temperature drop in the next couple hours.
Part 2 of the "Uh Oh" is Friday. I didn't have faith in this storm on Friday until the models converged today. The NAM and GFS are in agreement, FINALLY! Each model spreads a nice 2-5 inch swath of pure snow from SE KY up to just north of Louisville. We might see some mixed precip at the onset, but it looks like we'll have a nice soft snow pack on the top, making it "sled-able". Now this isn't a guarantee for inches of snow by any means, because we're still dancing on the line with this one. But since the GFS and NAM agree with this and the HPC has put us in a slight risk for more than 4", I'm nearly convinced:
I'm still concerned about an eastward jog in the storm, which would kill our snow. Although if a westward jog occurs then we're in for more snow than we see now. Luckily the GFS and NAM bias has been east the last few weeks, so a westward jog isn't out of the question! This will be firmed up by tomorrow afternoon or Thursday and we should be able to get accumulation estimates in here. THIS storm is the LAST snow of the season if it comes... Looks really warm for the next few weeks (by then it'll be nearly April).
Check back tomorrow!
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