Yeah, that's quite a low there. Just a quick count of the moisture puts us at over a foot of snow. The last two runs (0z and 6z) had the low just west of the position in the 12z, so that would be less snow. The fact that the low is moving east though on the Euro and GFS really makes you think. I peeked at the unfinished 18z NAM and it looks like its taking the low to the west, but its botched the last few storms, so I'll disregard that for now.
This is very interesting. Someone is going to get a massive snow accumulation out of this, but who? Just looking at the possible low tracks, I'd say its either us or Evansville. The problem is that this low will start to wrap around itself right before it hits us. That presents some issues because we don't know when or where the low will exactly start to wrap. This wrapping is where our snow comes from because cold air starts to inject itself on the backside of the low. So we want this thing to head just west of the Appalachians into E. Kentucky. If the models push this low into our area, you can kiss your snow goodbye.
I'm not calling for this storm yet. Just another 36-48 hours and we'll have a decent idea. As of now, it looks fairly good for us. Keep checking back, I'll have my forecast video out about lunchtime tomorrow. Hopefully the GFS doesn't do any dancing between now and then...
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