If you don't know what I'm talking about, that's probably for the better. Last night, the 18z GFS model came out and dumped 20+ inches of snow on us for Wednesday. I debated on posting about this but I wasn't too sure about the consistency about this system and thought that this could be a fluke. 24 hours later confirms that its not. The most recent run of the GFS (12z) shows the storm still very potent, but the strongest part is just west of here (W. Indiana):
Given that the GFS isn't consistent with the placement of the storm, I'll just say that this area in general could be in for a cocktail of rain/snow/ice, with snow being the whopper issue. I'm just not going to commit to a 20" snowstorm yet and cause mass panic. That's just irresponsible! This storm could go out of our area on the model just as quick as it came and I think that might happen. It is true that this is not too far away and things need to get sorted out quite soon. I'm just not going to go on a whim like this and call a snowstorm at 132 hours out based on a GFS monstrosity. If this monstrosity stays on the models by the weekend though, I'll commit.
The Euro model is running the low over us instead of east, so that would hamper our snow totals. The DGEX wants to move the low over the Appalachians (most lows go east or west of them) and gives us a little snow. Finally, the Canadian wants to move the low in here similar to the Euro, yet a little more to the east.
By the way, I do read my comments and I was very aware of the storm on the 18z last night. I didn't post because I wanted to see at least two more model runs before I could make a good analysis of this. Don't get your hopes up yet, but keep checking back...
1 comment:
Well, the nws says that the ground will be too warm and wet for accum :(
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