1/31 - 6pm - Rain and some ice

Looks like we're going to have a mess tonight. We'll see some sleet and freezing rain tonight, changing to all rain by the late night hours. During the early morning hours, that rain will again change to sleet and freezing rain, this time with some snow. I'm not expecting more than an inch of snow, but there could be some ice accumulation. Definitely expect some delays tomorrow.

Northwest of here is a different story, with heavy snow and a Winter Storm Warning. Earlier in the week I thought that we would get this, but the low didn't want to push any further east. Oh well.

1/30 - 7pm - Snow Track Misses Louisville... Again.

Yep, this one looks like it'll miss us too. I was thinking that there would be a southeastward track change, but it looks like the track instead went northwest. That means we'll get mostly rain and maybe just some snow showers tomorrow night and Friday. I know its a bummer and we've been dealing with it all winter long. There's still a chance it could shift east, but the low has formed and its too close to time for any big changes. Looks like they'll be sledding in St. Louis...

1/29 - 7:30pm - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

No time for a live video update since this came up so unexpectedly today (I was thinking more of just some lightning and rain), but now we're under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING with winds over 70MPH. You need to keep your flashlights handy over the next hour because we will have mass power outages in the Metro once this thing roars through. Might I also mention that it's COLD on the backside of these storms too, so bundle up tomorrow morning. Remember that we will freeze tonight and any water on the roads will become ice overnight.

1/29 - 6pm - SEVERE WEATHER & SNOW

Okay, I'm in total severe weather mode here folks. Here's the deal:

1. We're under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH now, which could get upgraded to a tornado watch later.
2. Also under a WIND ADVISORY until 6am tomorrow, gusts up to 45mph outside of storms, way more inside storms.
3. Tornado warnings are being issued in E. Illinois right now for several counties, if that trend continues we might see that situation tonight at around 9 - 10pm.
4. The temperature will drop 30 degrees once this front passes late tonight. STREETS WILL FLASH FREEZE, along with a quick burst of snow before daybreak (< 1 inch).
   

So, be on the look out at around 9pm this evening.

In the longer range, we have what looks to be a snowstorm in the cards. The GFS and NAM are really poo-pooing this storm with just an inch or so, but the other models are going all out on this one. If the low tracks through E. KY, then we'll get maybe 1-3, if we can get it to the Appalachians, which most models suggest except GFS and NAM, then we're in for a biggin'! I'll say well over 5 inches if we can get that to happen, based on what I've heard (I can't actually get most of these because you have to pay for them monthly, but I hear what they're doing from other meteorologists). I was able to look at the 12z Canadian model though, and it's definitely putting us in that heavy snow area.

Add onto that fire the HPC's latest Snow Accumulation forecast for Friday:


Holy smokes! That's a MODERATE RISK for more that 4 INCHES for us! And we're just miles away from a slight risk for over 8! With that said, our local NWS office is still putting out a 1 inch or so prediction for this storm, but they are using the NAM/GFS combo. I bet that forecast will change though. Speaking of which, AccuWeather is calling for 1.7" and the Weather Channel says just some snow showers. I bet they're using the GFS/NAM combo as well, which would explain that.

This is reminding me of the Dec. 2004 storm in ways you couldn't imagine. Before that storm, we had about 2-3 days notice and even then the models were still in vast disagreement. We also had the same stakes as well: A lot of rain or a lot of snow. We'll see how this works out though. If we still look like over 5 inches tomorrow, then I'll start giving marching orders to prepare for this thing (milk, bread, etc.). Stay calm for now though, because this will change considerably before the snow (or rain) starts falling.

Stay safe!

1/28 - 6:30pm - Head's UP!!!

If you told me yesterday that the GFS was going put a near-snowstorm over us later this week, I would've sent you to an asylum. Well don't I look sheepish? Here's the 18z for Friday...



The 12z is similar, and might I say there is a fine line between a snowstorm and a rainstorm here. It's close folks. I think we'll definitely get some backside snow, but if we get that blue shaded area just over us in the model as all snow, look out. I'm going to watch this CLOSELY. If we can get this low to go just a little further south, then we've bagged it! That being said, don't get your hopes up yet. I've said things like this many times this season and it all washes up as rain or nothing. Besides, we're still four days out.

I'm just tired of blown snow forecasts and false hopes. If this is our only storm this winter (should I say decade?) then I hope it's good...

1/26 - 1pm - New Video Forecast

Next week could be interesting...


Ryan Weather Forecast 1-26-08 from RyanWeather on Vimeo.

1/25 -7pm - Warming Up!

After a chilly 32 today, temperatures will continue to rise into the 40's and 50's next week. We'll also see increased chances for rain Monday and Tuesday as well.

The GFS (here we go again) is jumping around with an idea for a potent storm Friday of next week. A run of the model this morning just about made the local meteorology sector pop, with nearly a foot of snow. Later runs this afternoon have shifted the low back west, obviously with more rain than snow. I'm going to keep my eye on this one because it looks like an all or nothing storm. If we do get the snow side of this one, watch out.

1/23 - 6:30pm - No Snow, Just Flurries

Tonight we'll see some flurries as temperatures drop into the teens. Tomorrow will see highs only topping out in the lower 20's, so bundle up. I don't see any real snow coming yet, as our temperatures will rise substantially over the next couple weeks. I'll keep my eyes peeled though.

1/21 - 5:30pm - Snow ADVISORY

Yep, that's right! A SNOW ADVISORY has been issued for most of the counties around here, including Jefferson. We're still looking good for 1-2 inches by tomorrow morning and I think we'll still see some delays and cancellations for schools and businesses tomorrow. If we can get the heavier snow in here by 6-7am, I think we'll definitely see some of those. I've decided not to do a Winter Update video because I think the storm is too small to do a video for. If anything comes up, I'll post later.

1/21 - 11am - Here it comes!

The latest NAM indicates more moisture than previously thought for tonight/tomorrow's system. The high for tomorrow also looks lower, from 37 to 34 (from NWS). I agree with the NWS because both GFS and NAM models indicate a small period just above freezing tomorrow. I don't think that'll bring us any rain at all. ALL SNOW!

With that, I think we're still getting our 1-3 inches (3 inch amounts isolated, 1-2 more likely). Due to all of this, we will definitely see some school delays/closures. The roads tomorrow morning will be a mess, especially during the heavy snow period in the early-mid morning hours.

I'll put out a Winter Weather Update this afternoon if I have time...

1/20 - 10pm - This just in...

Just took a peak at the Louisville NWS office discussion for the snow on Mon PM/Tues. Here's what they say...

MODEL SOUNDINGS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES TO STAY JUST COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO STAY AS
SNOW AT LOUISVILLE AND LEXINGTON

Well, that's good news folks. They say an inch or so, but I'm still seeing a little more moisture than that. We'll see.

1/20 - 4:30pm - Winter's Revenge

The title says it all. My thermometer said 1.6 degrees when I woke up at 8am this morning. When I went outside for a few minutes, with gloves on, and I couldn't feel my fingers when I came in. It's that cold.

Tomorrow will warm to a blazing 37 degrees. Tomorrow night sees a chance for snow, and I don't mean a dusting. The NAM is really wanting to push a good helping of moisture in here for this system, and with temperatures in the mid to upper 20's during the overnight hours, I think we could get 1-3 inches (2-3 if we can stay all snow during the daytime hours). Now temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 30's during the daytime hours on Tuesday so we could see a little rain or sleet. If we can get an inch or two on the ground during the nighttime hours, I think we could keep temperatures at or below freezing and stay all snow. I think this is the best chance for an accumulating snow we've seen so far, and it could be our best based on our record so far this winter. Keep your fingers crossed!

I'll go in-depth tomorrow with this situation and we'll start getting down and dirty with snow accumulation projections as well.

1/19 - 5:30pm - New Video Forecast

A little snow on the way...

1/19 - 9am - Video this Afternoon

I have a few errands to run this morning so the video forecast will be out this afternoon. No big storms in the forecast folks, just some chances for some light snow like we had earlier this week. It will be considerably colder though...

1/17 - 10pm - That was... Interesting

I'll be honest and say I was surprised that we had snow on the ground this morning. When I went to bed last night, I was a little worried about the temperature. But in the end we got our 1/2" and there were a few delays (but not JCPS of course).

We'll see more snow showers tomorrow night in colder air, so that might stick better. After that we'll see temps in the 20's this weekend. Brrr! Still working on a system for late next week, but right now that's a toss-up. Given our current luck, I'm not excited about this one at all. There's a warm-up coming in a couple weeks as well. We'll see how that goes...

1/15 - 8:30pm - Thurs. Storm Weakening

Hmmm... Sorry about this one folks, it looks like the Thursday storm will be only an inch or so of snow. We're getting starved for moisture and it even looks like (gasp) that we could get a little rain too, as temperatures will be a little higher than expected. This makes many of us sad. I feel your pain.

BUT! Snow-lovers keep the faith! There are two more storms on their way, one on Monday and a possible whopper next Friday. The Monday one won't be too strong, with maybe an inch or just over that. The Friday one is changing track a lot. The latest GFS has a huge storm here on that one, but previous runs have it all over the place. So I'm not real confident about that one.

So, we can still get some snow, but that Thursday fizzle isn't resting too easy with me. Winter is half-over...

1/14 - 7:20pm - Today Was Just a Preview.

How about that snow this morning? Makes me thankful that I go to school really early, because the rush-hour delays due to the .5" of snow were terrible.

As I hinted to, this is only the beginning. The next chance for snow comes Thurs-Fri, which seems to be a pretty good bet for some snow. How much is the question. I'm going to hazard a guess for 2-3 inches at the moment by Friday evening. This WILL change because this total depends on two separate systems, which can both change in track before then. The NAM is shooting for a sizable storm, but the GFS is being stubborn again. The GFS has blown the track on multiple storms this year. The NAM has a much cleaner record.



The Saturday storm I talked a couple days ago has really toned down, but this clipper could still add on to our snow on the ground (hopefully).

A much bigger storm is on the horizon by Monday, which may or may not include a little ice and rain. We're still 7-days out on this one, but I think this one has more snow potential than the two storms coming up in the short term.

Beyond that we're looking for more 20's and 30's with storm after storm racing through this region. We're really going to have to keep an eye out for each storm here. This is what Winter SHOULD be like, not 70 and sunny like last week. I think this is way more exciting than that pattern.

1/12 - 3pm - New Video Forecast

Here's the video!

1/12 -12pm - 7-day Forecast, Video Later

I don't have enough time this morning for a video forecast, but I was able to get the 7-day done. Expect a video later this afternoon. I'll be saying the word "snow" a lot in this one...

1/11 - 11pm - Patience Brings Snow...

There will be no big snow this weekend. That's all I have to say! Just a few short waves, a dusting here or there, and then it leaves.

I'm more interested in late next week. Very interested.

2 storms are looking to set up shop in the east on Thurs/Fri and then again on Saturday. I'm more optimistic on the Thurs/Fri storm because the temperatures are right and the moisture is in place. This is what I'd call a small storm, but I think we could at least see SOME accumulation.

The Saturday storm is not as likely, but the stakes are higher. If we can get some westward movement of this storm, it could be incredible. The problem is that the current pattern we're in is funneling these storms up the coast, not the Appalachians. But really, if this thing starts showing signs of going west, you bet I'll be excited.

So I think the Thurs/Fri storm is a safer bet, but it'd be nice to get a licking from the Saturday one (for all you snow lovers). I've been poking around the web this afternoon and read some interesting discussions on various weather blogs. It seems as if we're setting up for quite a cold and stormy flow in here in a couple weeks. Apparently there is some indications that the air that's been building in the Arctic is just going to let loose, while at the same time allowing Gulf and Pacific moisture flow into the East. That's just fancy talk for more snow for us later on this month. I hope for snow's sake that this will happen. It's time to have a normal Winter for once!

1/10 - 9pm - Quicky Update

This January has been just incredible so far. Tornadoes, wind, and now even snow!? What more can a meteorology freak want? It looks like we're done with the storms for now, but snow is on its way. It looks like we'll get some of the stuff in a light amount this weekend (Sun-Mon). As with any system there is a risk it will be more intense than anticipated. It doesn't look like that right now, but any movement west with this system would bring a much bigger storm. But for now it looks light...

1/8 - 5pm - I'm Baaaaack -> TORNADO WATCH!

I thought I just cleaned up this place before I left! Now we're dealing with severe weather, warm temperatures, and even the Kentucky Snow Ghost is showing its head! What gives!?

Let's talk about today first. The radar is a mess; there are three tornado warnings out from Evansville to TN. I think we'll see some warnings around here, but as of right now we're stuck with our tornado WATCH for the area. Really I think we'll just see some nasty winds, but there's no telling what this line of storms will do in the next two hours. Luckily it will pale in comparison to the horrid outbreak of tornadoes yesterday in the Midwest that's been all over the media.

The next item on the agenda is my snow ghost reference. Some people around here thing our chances for an appreciable snow are dead, hence the ghost name. I think we'll shed that between next week and the couple weeks in succession after that. I know I've said something like this before, but now ALL of the models are putting us in a downright FRIGID pattern for this time period. There are quite a few storms lined up in this pattern as well, so we'll see where they go as they come through. The one I'm looking at now is somewhere between the 13th and 15th, which the GFS is poo-pooing this model run. Some have it, some don't. Ahh... Back to the old dilemma.